Signal Detail

Kedelai

Jawaban Cepat AI

Kedelai (ZS) 30-day outlook: Turun. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Excess moisture in us_corn_belt: precip 66mm vs ET0 29mm. Moi. Confidence 69%. (As of 2026-08-02)

ZS
TurunADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$1,188.25
+0.93%
Konsensus
73%
Kepercayaan
69%
Confidence keputusan69%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 06.06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -2.55%

Kedelai saat ini condong bearish.

Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Kedelai saat ini condong bearish. Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 06.06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -2.55%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / ZS] Excess moisture in us_corn_belt: precip 66mm vs ET0 29mm. Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm. Excess moisture in argentina_rosario: precip 34mm vs ET0 13mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-2.5%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 is typically a tight-supply period for ZS
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / ZS] Crude oil surged +3.8% today: ethanol demand impulse. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 79.1th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-2.5%), consistent with demand softness
Makro
[Macro Crew / ZS] Natural gas at 52w 5%: fertilizer costs low. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bearish (-2.5%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Kedelai saat ini condong bearish.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$1,157.92
-2.55%
$1125.95 ~ $1191.92
14d
$1,156.58
-2.67%
$1124.06 ~ $1190.56
30d
$1,160.21
-2.36%
$1126.79 ~ $1191.11
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Turun
Consensus
73%
Score
-0.459
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260714_211003_zs
Direction
Turun
Confidence
81.2%

ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (1개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZS

ZS
ZS
ZS
ZS
67%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Turun

Keyakinan

55%

Kesepakatan

88%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
0%
Netral
12%
Turun
88%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Elevated Price Demand Rationing
  • 2Weak Crude Ethanol Transmission To Soybeans
  • 3Quant Demand Softness Confirmed
  • 4Chuseok Demand Already Priced In
  • 5Low Fertilizer Input Costs Support Supply

Risiko Utama

  • !crush margin strength could still pull soybean demand higher if soy oil/meal spreads stay favorable
  • !a pullback in price from elevated levels could quickly re-trigger demand at lower thresholds, capping downside
  • !Sudden China Import Demand Shift Or Tariff De-Escalation
  • !South American Weather Shock Tightening Supply

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Demandsonnet-4.6

The crude/ethanol linkage is weak collateral for ZS specifically — that transmission channel runs mainly through corn and soybean oil crush margins, not raw soybean demand, so it shouldn't offset the...

Macrosonnet-4.6

Low natural gas prices are compressing fertilizer input costs, which supports higher planting incentives and ample supply into the next cycle rather than signaling demand strength — a structurally...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The crew's 'bullish' signals are low-relevance noise for ZS specifically — most cited headlines are about rice export bans, Brazilian sugarcane crushing, and Black Sea wheat, not soybean shipping or...

Globalsonnet-4.6

El Nino (ONI +1.0) favors benign US soybean growing conditions ahead of the August/September harvest window, which historically pressures prices as new-crop supply looms — this is the dominant...

Aturan vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$1154.96$1125.05$1188.32
2026-08-02$1153.09$1120.97$1185.69
2026-08-03$1162.73$1127.90$1195.61
2026-08-04$1161.15$1129.16$1196.12
2026-08-05$1159.34$1125.84$1192.56
2026-08-06$1158.06$1123.87$1192.95
2026-08-07$1157.92$1125.95$1191.92
2026-08-08$1145.39$1111.99$1179.48
2026-08-09$1144.81$1111.03$1178.10
2026-08-10$1155.81$1121.28$1190.94
2026-08-11$1155.64$1120.28$1187.51
2026-08-12$1155.24$1119.96$1184.89
2026-08-13$1155.36$1123.80$1191.02
2026-08-14$1156.58$1124.06$1190.56
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui:

CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI