オート麦 Bullish
CropCast は 3層データ、Quant Engine、4つの専門 Crew、公開スコアカードを 1 つの体験にまとめます。まず検証し、その後 TradingView で実行します。
Agent Consensus
4 / 6
4 of 12 agents agree bullish (incl. 6 LLM)
Expected Vol
High
Market Pulse
Real-time Momentum Flow
オート麦(ZO) 30日見通し: 上昇優勢。4/6 Crew同意。確信度85%。(2026-06-18)
Analyst Crew Evidence
Supply Dynamics
Harvest, logistics, stocks · オート麦
Moisture deficit in us_corn_belt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 29mm. Quant 7d foreca
Demand Profile
Institutional, consumer, processing · オート麦
LE at 52w 82%: profitable feeding encourages ZO demand. Price at 22.0th percenti
Macro Trends
Energy, FX, policy · オート麦
Natural gas at 52w 15%: fertilizer costs low. HIGH volatility regime (35%): elev
Global Flows
CME, fundamentals, seasonal · オート麦
RSI 14: deeply oversold, bounce expected. MACD -11.55: negative momentum. Golden
Logistics
Shipping, ports, exports · オート麦
No active shipping route disruptions detected | No export sales data available |
Sentiment
Market mood, positioning · オート麦
RSI oversold (14.1). Broad commodity complex falling
AIマルチモデル合意
AI判定
強気
確信度
63.3%
合意率
100%
Agents
6/12
投票分布
主要因
- 1RSI 14.1 is a historically rare capitulation extreme — contrarian long signal with high mean-reversion probability
- 2Quant model bullish at +12% 7-day independently supports price recovery thesis
- 3ZO's low liquidity means drawdowns overshoot fundamentals and snap back faster than liquid contracts
- 4Severe ET0 Precip Deficit June Grain Fill
- 5Old Crop Drawdown Seasonality June
主要リスク
- !Broad commodity complex bearish (6/8 falling) reflects macro/USD pressure that can override idiosyncratic signals
- !Illiquid markets can sustain extreme RSI readings longer than models expect — oversold can become more oversold
- !Canadian Oat Crop Conditions Unknown Could Offset Us Stress
- !35pct Volatility Elevated Mean Reversion Risk If Rains Materialize
クルー別分析
RSI at 14.1 is not merely oversold — it signals a probable selling climax or capitulation event, a level so extreme that most motivated sellers have likely already exited.
The ET0/precip ratio of 29mm demand vs 4mm actual is a severe 7:1 deficit — during June grain-fill for oats, this level of moisture stress historically translates to meaningful yield penalties, and...
ZO (Oats) presents a credible mean-reversion bounce setup: deeply oversold RSI combined with an intact Golden Cross structure (SMA50 > SMA200) suggests the selloff is exhausting against a medium-term...
Below-average pricing at the 22nd percentile of the 52-week range is the strongest demand signal here — food processors (oatmeal, granola, breakfast cereals) will accelerate procurement at these...
Commodity Futures
As of 2026年6月18日Prediction Performance Timeline
Historical signal accuracy tracking over rolling 30D window.
Overall Accuracy
53%