オート麦 Bullish
CropCast は 3層データ、Quant Engine、4つの専門 Crew、公開スコアカードを 1 つの体験にまとめます。まず検証し、その後 TradingView で実行します。
Agent Consensus
4 / 6
4 of 12 agents agree bullish (incl. 6 LLM)
Expected Vol
High
Market Pulse
Real-time Momentum Flow
オート麦(ZO) 30日見通し: 上昇優勢。4/6 Crew同意。確信度83%。(2026-05-03)
Analyst Crew Evidence
Supply Dynamics
Harvest, logistics, stocks · オート麦
Moisture deficit in us_corn_belt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 34mm. Quant 7d foreca
Demand Profile
Institutional, consumer, processing · オート麦
LE at 52w 89%: profitable feeding encourages ZO demand. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.7%
Macro Trends
Energy, FX, policy · オート麦
Crude oil at 52w 81%: high energy = production cost push for ZO. Natural gas at
Global Flows
CME, fundamentals, seasonal · オート麦
MACD -0.80: negative momentum. Golden Cross (SMA50 > SMA200): medium-term uptren
Logistics
Shipping, ports, exports · オート麦
No active shipping route disruptions detected | No export sales data available |
Sentiment
Market mood, positioning · オート麦
Broad commodity complex rising
AIマルチモデル合意
AI判定
強気
確信度
68%
合意率
94%
Agents
6/12
投票分布
主要因
- 1Northern Plains Sympathetic Drought Pressure
- 2Old Crop Drawdown Window May July
- 3High Volatility Confirming Supply Uncertainty
- 4Quant Momentum Alignment 7d 14d 30d
- 5Broad commodity complex bullish (8/9 rising) provides macro sympathy lift
主要リスク
- !Canadian Production Unaccounted Major Export Source
- !Corn Belt Moisture Data Geographic Basis Mismatch For Oats
- !Oats are illiquid — thin order book amplifies reversals; any USD strength or risk-off event hits ZO disproportionately
- !No oat-specific fundamental catalyst identified; move is derivative of corn/wheat sentiment, which can decouple quickly
クルー別分析
The moisture deficit signal is legitimate but requires geographic nuance — ZO (oats) production is concentrated in the northern plains (MN, WI, ND, SD) and Canada, not the core corn belt, so the 0mm...
ZO (Oats) benefits from the broad commodity complex tailwind — 8/9 commodities rising signals macro risk-on flow that historically lifts even thinly-traded grains.
Profitable livestock margins (LE at 89th 52w percentile) genuinely support oat feed demand, particularly for horse and specialty livestock operations where oats remain preferred over corn substitutes.
Oats (ZO) logistics are dominated by Canadian prairie rail origination (CN/CP to Vancouver or Thunder Bay) and thin export volumes — the absence of detected disruptions genuinely signals normal flow,...
Commodity Futures
As of 2026年5月04日Prediction Performance Timeline
Historical signal accuracy tracking over rolling 30D window.
Overall Accuracy
53%