Signal Detail

Cacau

Resposta Rapida IA

Cacau (CC) 30-day outlook: Alta. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+8.1%), supply may be tightening.. Confidence 72%. (As of 2026-05-03)

CC
AltaADJUST
Preço Atual
$3,668.00
+4.98%
Consenso
80%
Confiança
72%
Confiança da decisão72%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 8.12%

Cacau está com viés altista no momento.

Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Cacau está com viés altista no momento. Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 8.12%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / CC] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+8.1%), supply may be tightening. Strong negative trend (slope: -17.63). Wide CI range (40%): high supply uncertainty. 52w position 11%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (60%): potential supply-chain disruption
Demanda
[Demand Crew / CC] Price at 10.6th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Quant 7d: bullish (+8.1%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / CC] EXTREME volatility regime (60%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+8.1%), macro alignment
Por que essa leitura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

O que observar a seguir
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Cenário base

Cacau está com viés altista no momento.

Risco
Não há grande divergência no momento.
CC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

7d
$3,965.96
+8.12%
$3227.84 ~ $4694.36
14d
$3,960.32
+7.97%
$3267.79 ~ $4689.74
30d
$4,746.62
+29.41%
$4035.93 ~ $5398.98
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alta
Consensus
80%
Score
+0.752
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run
swarm_20260502_065255_cc
Direction
Alta
Confidence
88.2%

CC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

다수 지역 홍수 (3개)ZC 52주 극단ZS 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CC

CC
CC
CC
17%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

Veredicto IA

Alta

Confiança

67%

Acordo

84%

Agents

6/12

Votação

Alta
84%
Neutro
0%
Baixa
16%

Fatores-chave

  • 1West Africa structural supply deficit sustaining floor prices
  • 2USD weakness / Fed easing expectations boosting dollar-denominated commodities
  • 3Flight-to-real-assets in crisis macro regime supporting hoarding demand
  • 4Broad commodity momentum (8 golden crosses) confirming macro tailwind
  • 5Price well below 2024 highs creates asymmetric upside vs. downside risk

Riscos-chave

  • !Extreme volatility regime cuts both ways — mean reversion could accelerate sharply if demand destruction (chocolate price elasticity) kicks in at persistently high cocoa costs
  • !Trade tariff escalation reducing global confectionery demand and processing margins, softening cocoa end-demand
  • !Quant 30d Forecast Of +29pct Appears Supply Or Technical Driven Not Demand Led — Demand Recovery Is Gradual Not Explosive
  • !Global Chocolate Consumption Headwinds From Consumer Discretionary Squeeze And Sugar Reduction Health Trends

Resumo por Equipe

Macrosonnet-4.6

Cocoa (CC) at $3,668 sits well below its 2024 supply-crisis peak (~$12,000), yet remains structurally elevated due to persistent West African supply deficits (Ivory Coast/Ghana crop disease and...

Demandsonnet-4.6

Cocoa at $3,668/mt represents a dramatic retracement from the 2024 spike above $10,000/mt, and at the 10.6th percentile of its 52-week range, demand destruction from extreme pricing is now reversing.

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Cocoa (CC) at $3,668 sits well below its 2024 historic highs (~$10,000-12,000), suggesting the post-peak correction has largely run its course and the current 30-day momentum (+29.4%) reflects a...

Supplysonnet-4.6

Cocoa at $3,668 sits at only 11% of its 52-week range — a collapse from the $10,000–$12,000 peaks driven by West Africa supply crisis recovery pricing.

Regras vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$4435.12$3646.41$5137.11
2026-05-03$4477.27$3742.88$5185.16
2026-05-04$3859.87$3151.84$4532.71
2026-05-05$3942.38$3200.59$4654.20
2026-05-06$3967.75$3227.54$4710.36
2026-05-07$3975.47$3298.20$4692.53
2026-05-08$3965.96$3227.84$4694.36
2026-05-09$4617.68$3893.34$5351.95
2026-05-10$4623.19$3859.76$5348.35
2026-05-11$3970.21$3270.05$4709.11
2026-05-12$4019.03$3260.31$4752.61
2026-05-13$4013.38$3282.92$4764.91
2026-05-14$3993.46$3288.80$4743.37
2026-05-15$3960.32$3267.79$4689.74
E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Previsão de Preços de Commodities com IA