CropCast 每日详细报告

流水线

v2.0

净值

$971,986.77

回报率

-2.80%

持仓

Runtime

Runtime health

Runtime payload is fresh and has enough verified history for public use.

state fresh

report 2026/09/15 21:21

age 0.0h

verified 2909

Lead

Lead Judgment

先看当天最高确定性的判断。

上行 · 确认

72%

KC +37.8%: Crew 가중 합의 기준

主判断确定性72%

便于阅读的解释

核心依据

[Supply Crew / Coffee] Quant 7일 예측: bullish (+36.09%). RSI 5 → 과매도, 반등 가능. SMA50>SMA200 골든크로스 → 상승 추세. 볼린저 하단 이탈 → 반등 가능

为什么需要等待或谨慎

Bullish, but confirmation-first execution is cleaner than chasing.

下一步确认点

높은 변동성 47% → 갑작스런 반전 가능

Need more context?

If evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm run become the extra validation layer.

核心依据

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

风险

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

Agent views

Supply Crew

Coffee

Quant 7일 예측: bullish (+36.09%). RSI 5 → 과매도, 반등 가능. SMA50>SMA200 골든크로스 → 상승 추세. 볼린저 하단 이탈 → 반등 가능

Demand Crew

Coffee

Quant 수요 관점: bullish (+36.09%). 명절 시즌 접근 → 기관 수요 증가 예상

Macro Crew

Coffee

원유 52주 81% → 물류비/비료비 상승 압력. 천연가스 52주 7% → 비료 원가↓

Market regime

High-volatility regime

Event context

높은 변동성 47% → 갑작스런 반전 가능

Disagreement diagnosis

The crews converged without major conflict.

Moderator decision log

The crews converged without major conflict.

Execution

Execution Funnel

当前结构是证据 → 验证 → TradingView 执行。

Hit rate

41.8%

verified 2909

Win rate

40%

30 trades

打开成绩单打开品种详情

Data

Collection Snapshot

把今天输入层的规模压缩到一个视图里。

Global futures: 0

KR items: 0 / 0

Intelligence: 0 → 0

Signals: weather 0 · text 0

Portfolio

Open Positions

检查当前持仓和未实现状态。

Equity

$971,986.77

Realized PnL

-$28,988.23

Cash

$939,411.77

Margin Used

$31,600.00

Debate

Top Debate Results

按确定性列出最强 debate 结果。

调整 · 上行

90% conf

HE +7.2%: Crew 가중 합의 기준

核心依据

[Supply Crew / Lean Hogs] Quant 7일 예측: bullish (+7.81%). 52주 저점 8% 부근 → 공급 감소 예상. SMA50>SMA200 골든크로스 → 상승 추세

为什么需要等待或谨慎

Bullish, but confirmation-first execution is cleaner than chasing.

下一步确认点

높은 변동성 57% → 예측 불확실성 상승

原始依据

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

原始风险

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

Disagreement diagnosis

The crews converged without major conflict.

Moderator decision log

The crews converged without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

The crews converged without major conflict.

确认 · 上行

72% conf

KC +37.8%: Crew 가중 합의 기준

核心依据

[Supply Crew / Coffee] Quant 7일 예측: bullish (+36.09%). RSI 5 → 과매도, 반등 가능. SMA50>SMA200 골든크로스 → 상승 추세. 볼린저 하단 이탈 → 반등 가능

为什么需要等待或谨慎

Bullish, but confirmation-first execution is cleaner than chasing.

下一步确认点

높은 변동성 47% → 갑작스런 반전 가능

原始依据

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

原始风险

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

Disagreement diagnosis

The crews converged without major conflict.

Moderator decision log

The crews converged without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

The crews converged without major conflict.

确认 · 上行

72% conf

CC +5.0%: Crew 가중 합의 기준

核心依据

[Supply Crew / Cocoa] Quant 7일 예측: bullish (+5.60%). SMA50>SMA200 골든크로스 → 상승 추세

为什么需要等待或谨慎

Bullish, but confirmation-first execution is cleaner than chasing.

下一步确认点

높은 변동성 46% → 예측 불확실성 상승

原始依据

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

原始风险

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

Disagreement diagnosis

The crews converged without major conflict.

Moderator decision log

The crews converged without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

The crews converged without major conflict.

确认 · 上行

72% conf

CT +2.0%: Crew 가중 합의 기준

核心依据

[Supply Crew / Cotton] Quant 7일 예측: bullish (+1.35%). SMA50>SMA200 골든크로스 → 상승 추세

为什么需要等待或谨慎

Bullish, but confirmation-first execution is cleaner than chasing.

下一步确认点

높은 변동성 33% → 예측 불확실성 상승

原始依据

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

原始风险

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

Disagreement diagnosis

The crews converged without major conflict.

Moderator decision log

The crews converged without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

The crews converged without major conflict.

调整 · 下行

68% conf

ZO -21.6%: Crew 가중 합의 기준

核心依据

[Supply Crew / Oats] Quant 7일 예측: bearish (-21.34%). RSI 82 → 과매수, 조정 가능. 52주 고점 100% 부근 → 공급 증가 유인. SMA50>SMA200 골든크로스 → 상승 추세

为什么需要等待或谨慎

Waiting or staying defensive is cleaner than acting immediately.

下一步确认点

고유가 지속 시 곡물 생산비 증가

原始依据

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

原始风险

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

Disagreement diagnosis

The crews converged without major conflict.

Moderator decision log

The crews converged without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

The crews converged without major conflict.

调整 · 上行

67% conf

ZC +3.6%: Crew 가중 합의 기준

核心依据

[Supply Crew / Corn] Quant 7일 예측: bullish (+2.41%). RSI 75 → 과매수, 조정 가능. 52주 고점 100% 부근 → 공급 증가 유인. SMA50>SMA200 골든크로스 → 상승 추세

为什么需要等待或谨慎

Bullish, but confirmation-first execution is cleaner than chasing.

下一步确认点

52주 고점 100% → 저항 가능

原始依据

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

原始风险

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

Disagreement diagnosis

The crews converged without major conflict.

Moderator decision log

The crews converged without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

The crews converged without major conflict.

调整 · 上行

67% conf

NG +12.7%: Crew 가중 합의 기준

核心依据

[Supply Crew / Natural Gas] Quant 7일 예측: bullish (+8.38%). 52주 저점 7% 부근 → 공급 감소 예상. SMA50<SMA200 데스크로스 → 하락 추세

为什么需要等待或谨慎

Bullish, but confirmation-first execution is cleaner than chasing.

下一步确认点

고유가 지속 시 곡물 생산비 증가

原始依据

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

原始风险

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

Disagreement diagnosis

The crews converged without major conflict.

Moderator decision log

The crews converged without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

The crews converged without major conflict.

确认 · 下行

51% conf

LE -7.3%: Crew 가중 합의 기준

核心依据

[Supply Crew / Live Cattle] Quant 7일 예측: bearish (-6.90%). SMA50<SMA200 데스크로스 → 하락 추세

为什么需要等待或谨慎

Waiting or staying defensive is cleaner than acting immediately.

下一步确认点

고유가 지속 시 곡물 생산비 증가

原始依据

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

原始风险

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

Disagreement diagnosis

The crews converged without major conflict.

Moderator decision log

The crews converged without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

The crews converged without major conflict.

Quant

Quant Forecast Table

用表格查看数值预测层。

Ticker	Current	7D	30D	MAPE

Positions

Open Positions

检查当前持仓和未实现状态。

Ticker	Side	Contracts	Entry	Current	Unrealized
NG	short	5	2.83	2.884	-$2,700.00
ZS	long	3	1280.5	1305	$3,675.00
SB	long	5	19.06	19.06	$0.00
CC	long	1	6029	6029	$0.00