咖啡未来30天价格展望？

30-day forecast: $253.05 (-9.32%), range: $232.18–$273.56.

如何开始交易咖啡期货？

咖啡 (KC) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

影响咖啡价格的主要因素？

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

CropCast的咖啡预测准确率？

Hit rate: 57.3% (43/75). Wrong calls stay visible.

咖啡价格预测 2026 — AI预测

—中性⇄ADJUST

当前价格

$279.05

-7.26%

共识度

58%

置信度

68%

判断确定性68%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

2026/05/04 06:57 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bullish · 0.63%

咖啡目前还没有足够明确的方向优势。

在确定性提升前，更适合先观察。

每日报告成绩单

Summary

通俗判断

先读方向、证据和风险，再决定如何执行。

快速结论

咖啡目前还没有足够明确的方向优势。在确定性提升前，更适合先观察。

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

2026/05/04 06:57 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bullish · 0.63%

Evidence basis

供应分析

[Supply Crew / KC] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm. Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+0.6%), supply may be tightening. Seasonal: month 5 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 0%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (44%): potential supply-chain disruption. KG severe supply chains: 브라질 남부 서리 (Parana/Minas Gerais 커피 지대)

需求分析

[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 0.0th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), consistent with demand strength

宏观分析

[Macro Crew / KC] HIGH volatility regime (44%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), macro alignment

为什么会这样判断

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

为什么等待可能更好

在确定性提升前，更适合先观察。

下一步看什么

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

基础情景

咖啡目前还没有足够明确的方向优势。

风险提示

当前没有明显分歧。

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

Chart

市场图表

图表仅作视觉参考，真正的判断来自下方的证据和 debate。

这是延迟数据。判断前请同时查看证据与成绩单。

Quant

Quant Forecast

用同一结构比较 7D、14D 和 30D 区间。

$280.82

+0.63%

$262.42 ~ $300.34

14d

$259.13

-7.14%

$240.38 ~ $277.69

30d

$253.05

-9.32%

$232.18 ~ $273.56

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

系统会在这里确认、调整或推翻 quant 基线。

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

—中性

Consensus

58%

Score

+0.192

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

危机状态下，模拟会成为额外决策层。

Run

swarm_20260412_063047_kc

Direction

看跌

Confidence

66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

57%

Hit rate

AI Debate

AI多模型共识

独立AI代理交叉验证分析

▼

AI判定

看跌

确信度

45%

共识率

64%

Agents

6/12

投票分布

看涨

36%

中性

看跌

64%

关键因素

1Brazil main arabica harvest underway — seasonal supply flow increases without logistical bottleneck
2Santos port (Brazil's primary coffee export hub) showing no congestion — physical export velocity unimpaired
3BDI and ocean freight rates not flagging stress — no shipping cost premium to support elevated futures basis
4Roaster Restocking At 52w Lows
5Commercial Processor Margin Improvement Incentive

主要风险

!Unexpected Santos port disruption or vessel congestion spike could rapidly reverse bearish logistics thesis
!Colombia or Vietnam weather-driven quality degradation could tighten physical supply and widen basis unexpectedly
!Brazilian Harvest Supply Flush Overwhelming Demand Bids
!Macro Slowdown Reducing Foodservice Cafe Traffic Volumes

团队分析摘要

⬡物流sonnet-4.6

The complete absence of active logistics disruptions is itself a signal — coffee is entering Brazil's main arabica harvest window (April-September), and with Santos port functioning normally and no...

◉需求sonnet-4.6

At the 0.0th percentile of its 52-week range, KC at $2.79/lb is genuinely attractive for commercial roasters and institutional buyers to rebuild depleted inventories — restocking cycles at value...

◈供应sonnet-4.6

The frost risk signal in Parana/Minas Gerais is the dominant factor — May frost events in Brazil's Arabica belt are historically the most explosive supply shocks in KC history, and this alone...

▲全球sonnet-4.6

KC arabica remains structurally weak against the broader soft commodity complex — the 12.2pp divergence vs CC and 9.9pp vs SB reflects coffee-specific supply pressure, likely from recovering...

规则 vs AIdisagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

移除购物行为，让页面聚焦于证据、成绩单验证和图表执行。

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-05-02	$306.79	$288.84	$325.92
2026-05-03	$305.13	$286.21	$323.59
2026-05-04	$292.28	$272.13	$309.86
2026-05-05	$290.15	$270.65	$309.04
2026-05-06	$288.02	$269.33	$306.74
2026-05-07	$285.03	$266.26	$304.66
2026-05-08	$280.82	$262.42	$300.34
2026-05-09	$289.52	$271.64	$307.03
2026-05-10	$286.36	$268.57	$304.93
2026-05-11	$272.30	$251.81	$289.52
2026-05-12	$269.25	$250.01	$288.12
2026-05-13	$266.54	$247.84	$285.96
2026-05-14	$263.28	$244.87	$283.02
2026-05-15	$259.13	$240.38	$277.69

E-E-A-T

数据来源

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

方法论: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

最后更新: 2026/05/04 06:57 (UTC)