咖啡未来30天价格展望？

30-day forecast: $412.88 (+31.68%), range: $391.81–$434.93.

如何开始交易咖啡期货？

咖啡 (KC) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

影响咖啡价格的主要因素？

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

CropCast的咖啡预测准确率？

Hit rate: 58.2% (53/91). Wrong calls stay visible.

咖啡价格预测 2026 — AI预测

↑看涨✓CONFIRM

当前价格

$313.55

-2.94%

共识度

76%

置信度

82%

判断确定性82%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

2026/08/02 06:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bullish · 12.69%

咖啡目前偏向上涨判断。

先确认核心证据，再选择性跟随看涨情景。

每日报告成绩单

Summary

通俗判断

先读方向、证据和风险，再决定如何执行。

快速结论

咖啡目前偏向上涨判断。先确认核心证据，再选择性跟随看涨情景。

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

2026/08/02 06:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bullish · 12.69%

Evidence basis

供应分析

[Supply Crew / KC] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm. El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+12.7%), supply may be tightening. Approaching tight-supply period next month for KC. High volatility (81%): potential supply-chain disruption

需求分析

[Demand Crew / KC] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Quant 7d: bullish (+12.7%), consistent with demand strength

宏观分析

[Macro Crew / KC] EXTREME volatility regime (81%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bullish (+12.7%), macro alignment

为什么会这样判断

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

为什么等待可能更好

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

下一步看什么

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Directional regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

基础情景

咖啡目前偏向上涨判断。

风险提示

当前没有明显分歧。

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

Chart

市场图表

图表仅作视觉参考，真正的判断来自下方的证据和 debate。

这是延迟数据。判断前请同时查看证据与成绩单。

Quant

Quant Forecast

用同一结构比较 7D、14D 和 30D 区间。

$353.34

+12.69%

$332.96 ~ $370.42

14d

$385.73

+23.02%

$365.51 ~ $406.32

30d

$412.88

+31.68%

$391.81 ~ $434.93

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

系统会在这里确认、调整或推翻 quant 基线。

Decision

✓CONFIRM

Direction

↑看涨

Consensus

76%

Score

+1.050

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

危机状态下，模拟会成为额外决策层。

Run

swarm_20260731_065604_kc

Direction

看涨

Confidence

92%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (1개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

58%

Hit rate

AI Debate

AI多模型共识

独立AI代理交叉验证分析

▲

AI判定

看涨

确信度

56%

共识率

88%

Agents

6/12

投票分布

看涨

88%

中性

12%

看跌

关键因素

1COT/옵션 스큐 등 실제 포지셔닝 데이터 부재로 신호 공백 상태
2커피(KC)는 브라질/베트남 공급 충격 뉴스에 민감하나 헤드라인 심리 지표가 아직 캡처되지 않음
330일 +31.68% 급등은 통상 스펙 롱 익스트림 및 숏커버링 랠리 후 되돌림 리스크를 내포
4Enso El Nino Supply Shock
5Structural Vietnam Robusta Deficit

主要风险

!실제 심리 데이터 없이 판단하므로 공급 충격 뉴스(서리, 가뭄, 운임)가 실제로는 강세를 정당화할 수 있음
!급등 후 컨트래리언 매도 신호가 나타날 경우 퀀트 모델의 모멘텀 신호와 정면 충돌 가능
!quant 30d forecast of +31.68% looks like a momentum-extrapolation artifact after an already outsized run — magnitude risk of mean reversion/profit-taking
!KC-CC and KC-SB divergence may reflect coffee-specific fund liquidation rather than confirming cross-commodity bullish momentum, so it shouldn't be double-counted with the ENSO factor

团队分析摘要

◆情绪sonnet-4.6

동시성/뉴스 흐름 데이터가 부재해 독립적인 컨빅션을 형성할 근거가 없다. 다만 30일간 +31.68%라는 급격한 가격 상승은 통상 투기적 롱 포지션 과열과 리스크 프리미엄 확대를 동반하는데, 이 경우 뉴스 심리 지표가 아직 이를 반영하지 못한 '레깅' 구간일 가능성이 크다.

▲全球sonnet-4.6

The structural supply story is genuine and consistent with the 2023-2025 coffee bull cycle: El Nino-driven drought stress on Vietnamese/Indonesian robusta and continued Brazilian arabica tightness...

◎宏观sonnet-4.6

Coffee's parabolic move (+31.7% in 30d) is overwhelmingly a supply-shock story (Brazil drought/frost risk, Vietnam Robusta shortfall, US tariffs on Brazilian imports) rather than a macro-driven rally...

◈供应sonnet-4.6

Brazil의 강수 부족(0mm vs ET0 32mm)과 다음 달 접근 중인 타이트 서플라이 시즌은 실질적인 펀더멘털 리스크로, 방향성 자체는 지지한다. 다만 이 데이터는 단일 스냅샷이며 지속 기간(다주 vs 일시적)이 불명확해 실제 작황 피해로 이어질지 확인이 필요하다.

规则 vs AIagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

移除购物行为，让页面聚焦于证据、成绩单验证和图表执行。

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-08-01	$297.89	$278.15	$317.83
2026-08-02	$300.78	$281.16	$321.06
2026-08-03	$339.59	$320.18	$358.75
2026-08-04	$342.92	$324.61	$362.02
2026-08-05	$347.11	$327.44	$366.19
2026-08-06	$350.40	$329.78	$369.34
2026-08-07	$353.34	$332.96	$370.42
2026-08-08	$323.40	$304.24	$344.43
2026-08-09	$327.86	$306.77	$348.69
2026-08-10	$368.08	$347.57	$387.36
2026-08-11	$372.68	$353.57	$392.94
2026-08-12	$377.94	$358.51	$397.45
2026-08-13	$382.12	$364.18	$403.09
2026-08-14	$385.73	$365.51	$406.32

E-E-A-T

数据来源

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

方法论: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

最后更新: 2026/08/02 06:06 (UTC)