Signal Detail

Café

Resposta Rapida IA

Café (KC) 30-day outlook: Baixa. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 56mm vs ET0 27mm. M. Confidence 68%. (As of 2026-06-18)

KC
BaixaADJUST
Preço Atual
$272.35
-1.77%
Consenso
80%
Confiança
68%
Confiança da decisão68%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -21.77%

Café está com viés baixista no momento.

Em vez de perseguir o preço, faz mais sentido agir com defesa ou esperar um preço melhor.

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Café está com viés baixista no momento. Em vez de perseguir o preço, faz mais sentido agir com defesa ou esperar um preço melhor.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -21.77%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / KC] Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 56mm vs ET0 27mm. Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 24mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-23.4%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 6 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 16%: low prices likely reducing production incentives
Demanda
[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 15.5th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Quant 7d: bearish (-23.4%), consistent with demand softness
Macro
[Macro Crew / KC] Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 4 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). HIGH crisis level: elevated risk appetite for commodities. Quant 7d: bearish (-23.4%), macro alignment
Por que essa leitura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor
i

Em vez de perseguir o preço, faz mais sentido agir com defesa ou esperar um preço melhor.

O que observar a seguir
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Cenário base

Café está com viés baixista no momento.

Risco
Não há grande divergência no momento.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

7d
$213.05
-21.77%
$194.53 ~ $230.49
14d
$203.61
-25.24%
$184.46 ~ $221.28
30d
$212.20
-22.09%
$192.88 ~ $230.87
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Baixa
Consensus
80%
Score
-0.458
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_kc
Direction
Baixa
Confidence
66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

Veredicto IA

Baixa

Confiança

62%

Acordo

100%

Agents

6/12

Votação

Alta
0%
Neutro
0%
Baixa
100%

Fatores-chave

  • 1Brazil arabica harvest peak approaching — Santos export volumes typically surge June–August, adding supply pressure and weakening nearby futures
  • 2Bullish rule-based signals are grain/wheat logistics entirely unrelated to coffee; effective signal quality for KC is near-zero from that data
  • 3No coffee-specific port congestion, cold-chain disruption, or freight bottleneck identified that would create a supply-side squeeze
  • 4USD Strength From Persistent Fed Hawkishness
  • 5Mean Reversion After Historic Supply Shock Rally

Riscos-chave

  • !Vietnamese robusta crop stress or unexpected Brazilian frost event (tail risk in June) could rapidly flip logistics from bearish to bullish
  • !Quant forecast magnitude (-23% in 7d) is extreme and may already be overshooting; a technical rebound could generate short-term counter-trend moves
  • !Renewed La Nina Weather Disruption In Brazil Or Vietnam Could Reverse Supply Outlook
  • !Broad Commodity Risk On Surge From Escalating Geopolitical Crisis Could Drag Coffee Higher

Resumo por Equipe

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The rule-based bullish signals are entirely misattributed — they reference Kazakhstan wheat imports and Black Sea grain logistics, which have zero relevance to Coffee C futures.

Macrosonnet-4.6

Coffee at 273.6 cents/lb is at historically elevated levels following the 2024-2025 supply-shock rally; with no fresh catalyst, mean reversion dominates.

Demandsonnet-4.6

While Arabica coffee at the 15.5th percentile of its 52-week range ($273.6) should theoretically trigger roaster restocking and downstream demand recovery, the magnitude of the quant signal (-23.4%...

Globalsonnet-4.6

Technical alignment is clear — death cross, negative MACD, and multi-horizon quant consensus all confirm a structural downtrend consistent with mean-reversion pressure after KC's multi-year rally...

Regras vs IAdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-18$229.56$211.76$248.04
2026-06-19$225.58$207.45$242.97
2026-06-20$171.17$152.54$189.68
2026-06-21$168.14$149.75$186.10
2026-06-22$217.40$198.36$235.80
2026-06-23$214.82$195.46$232.32
2026-06-24$213.05$194.53$230.49
2026-06-25$209.89$190.90$227.50
2026-06-26$207.16$189.26$224.30
2026-06-27$154.23$134.98$170.75
2026-06-28$152.88$134.71$171.46
2026-06-29$203.98$185.41$221.79
2026-06-30$203.36$185.11$221.34
2026-07-01$203.61$184.46$221.28
E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Previsão de Preços de Commodities com IA