Signal Detail

Café

Resposta Rapida IA

Café (KC) 30-day outlook: Alta. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm.. Confidence 82%. (As of 2026-08-02)

KC
AltaCONFIRM
Preço Atual
$313.55
-2.94%
Consenso
76%
Confiança
82%
Confiança da decisão82%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 06:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 12.69%

Café está com viés altista no momento.

Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Café está com viés altista no momento. Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 06:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 12.69%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / KC] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm. El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+12.7%), supply may be tightening. Approaching tight-supply period next month for KC. High volatility (81%): potential supply-chain disruption
Demanda
[Demand Crew / KC] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Quant 7d: bullish (+12.7%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / KC] EXTREME volatility regime (81%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bullish (+12.7%), macro alignment
Por que essa leitura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

O que observar a seguir
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Cenário base

Café está com viés altista no momento.

Risco
Não há grande divergência no momento.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

7d
$353.34
+12.69%
$332.96 ~ $370.42
14d
$385.73
+23.02%
$365.51 ~ $406.32
30d
$412.88
+31.68%
$391.81 ~ $434.93
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision
CONFIRM
Direction
Alta
Consensus
76%
Score
+1.050
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run
swarm_20260731_065604_kc
Direction
Alta
Confidence
92%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (1개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
KC
58%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

Veredicto IA

Alta

Confiança

56%

Acordo

88%

Agents

6/12

Votação

Alta
88%
Neutro
12%
Baixa
0%

Fatores-chave

  • 1COT/옵션 스큐 등 실제 포지셔닝 데이터 부재로 신호 공백 상태
  • 2커피(KC)는 브라질/베트남 공급 충격 뉴스에 민감하나 헤드라인 심리 지표가 아직 캡처되지 않음
  • 330일 +31.68% 급등은 통상 스펙 롱 익스트림 및 숏커버링 랠리 후 되돌림 리스크를 내포
  • 4Enso El Nino Supply Shock
  • 5Structural Vietnam Robusta Deficit

Riscos-chave

  • !실제 심리 데이터 없이 판단하므로 공급 충격 뉴스(서리, 가뭄, 운임)가 실제로는 강세를 정당화할 수 있음
  • !급등 후 컨트래리언 매도 신호가 나타날 경우 퀀트 모델의 모멘텀 신호와 정면 충돌 가능
  • !quant 30d forecast of +31.68% looks like a momentum-extrapolation artifact after an already outsized run — magnitude risk of mean reversion/profit-taking
  • !KC-CC and KC-SB divergence may reflect coffee-specific fund liquidation rather than confirming cross-commodity bullish momentum, so it shouldn't be double-counted with the ENSO factor

Resumo por Equipe

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

동시성/뉴스 흐름 데이터가 부재해 독립적인 컨빅션을 형성할 근거가 없다. 다만 30일간 +31.68%라는 급격한 가격 상승은 통상 투기적 롱 포지션 과열과 리스크 프리미엄 확대를 동반하는데, 이 경우 뉴스 심리 지표가 아직 이를 반영하지 못한 '레깅' 구간일 가능성이 크다.

Globalsonnet-4.6

The structural supply story is genuine and consistent with the 2023-2025 coffee bull cycle: El Nino-driven drought stress on Vietnamese/Indonesian robusta and continued Brazilian arabica tightness...

Macrosonnet-4.6

Coffee's parabolic move (+31.7% in 30d) is overwhelmingly a supply-shock story (Brazil drought/frost risk, Vietnam Robusta shortfall, US tariffs on Brazilian imports) rather than a macro-driven rally...

Supplysonnet-4.6

Brazil의 강수 부족(0mm vs ET0 32mm)과 다음 달 접근 중인 타이트 서플라이 시즌은 실질적인 펀더멘털 리스크로, 방향성 자체는 지지한다. 다만 이 데이터는 단일 스냅샷이며 지속 기간(다주 vs 일시적)이 불명확해 실제 작황 피해로 이어질지 확인이 필요하다.

Regras vs IAagree
Execution

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$297.89$278.15$317.83
2026-08-02$300.78$281.16$321.06
2026-08-03$339.59$320.18$358.75
2026-08-04$342.92$324.61$362.02
2026-08-05$347.11$327.44$366.19
2026-08-06$350.40$329.78$369.34
2026-08-07$353.34$332.96$370.42
2026-08-08$323.40$304.24$344.43
2026-08-09$327.86$306.77$348.69
2026-08-10$368.08$347.57$387.36
2026-08-11$372.68$353.57$392.94
2026-08-12$377.94$358.51$397.45
2026-08-13$382.12$364.18$403.09
2026-08-14$385.73$365.51$406.32
E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao:

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