Signal Detail

Café

Resposta Rapida IA

Café (KC) 30-day outlook: Neutro. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm.. Confidence 68%. (As of 2026-05-03)

KC
NeutroADJUST
Preço Atual
$279.05
-7.26%
Consenso
58%
Confiança
68%
Confiança da decisão68%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%

Café ainda não mostra uma vantagem direcional clara.

Enquanto a convicção não sobe, observar é a escolha mais limpa.

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Café ainda não mostra uma vantagem direcional clara. Enquanto a convicção não sobe, observar é a escolha mais limpa.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / KC] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm. Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+0.6%), supply may be tightening. Seasonal: month 5 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 0%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (44%): potential supply-chain disruption. KG severe supply chains: 브라질 남부 서리 (Parana/Minas Gerais 커피 지대)
Demanda
[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 0.0th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / KC] HIGH volatility regime (44%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), macro alignment
Por que essa leitura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor
i

Enquanto a convicção não sobe, observar é a escolha mais limpa.

O que observar a seguir
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Cenário base

Café ainda não mostra uma vantagem direcional clara.

Risco
Não há grande divergência no momento.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

7d
$280.82
+0.63%
$262.42 ~ $300.34
14d
$259.13
-7.14%
$240.38 ~ $277.69
30d
$253.05
-9.32%
$232.18 ~ $273.56
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Neutro
Consensus
58%
Score
+0.192
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_kc
Direction
Baixa
Confidence
66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

Veredicto IA

Baixa

Confiança

45%

Acordo

64%

Agents

6/12

Votação

Alta
36%
Neutro
0%
Baixa
64%

Fatores-chave

  • 1Brazil main arabica harvest underway — seasonal supply flow increases without logistical bottleneck
  • 2Santos port (Brazil's primary coffee export hub) showing no congestion — physical export velocity unimpaired
  • 3BDI and ocean freight rates not flagging stress — no shipping cost premium to support elevated futures basis
  • 4Roaster Restocking At 52w Lows
  • 5Commercial Processor Margin Improvement Incentive

Riscos-chave

  • !Unexpected Santos port disruption or vessel congestion spike could rapidly reverse bearish logistics thesis
  • !Colombia or Vietnam weather-driven quality degradation could tighten physical supply and widen basis unexpectedly
  • !Brazilian Harvest Supply Flush Overwhelming Demand Bids
  • !Macro Slowdown Reducing Foodservice Cafe Traffic Volumes

Resumo por Equipe

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The complete absence of active logistics disruptions is itself a signal — coffee is entering Brazil's main arabica harvest window (April-September), and with Santos port functioning normally and no...

Demandsonnet-4.6

At the 0.0th percentile of its 52-week range, KC at $2.79/lb is genuinely attractive for commercial roasters and institutional buyers to rebuild depleted inventories — restocking cycles at value...

Supplysonnet-4.6

The frost risk signal in Parana/Minas Gerais is the dominant factor — May frost events in Brazil's Arabica belt are historically the most explosive supply shocks in KC history, and this alone...

Globalsonnet-4.6

KC arabica remains structurally weak against the broader soft commodity complex — the 12.2pp divergence vs CC and 9.9pp vs SB reflects coffee-specific supply pressure, likely from recovering...

Regras vs IAdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$306.79$288.84$325.92
2026-05-03$305.13$286.21$323.59
2026-05-04$292.28$272.13$309.86
2026-05-05$290.15$270.65$309.04
2026-05-06$288.02$269.33$306.74
2026-05-07$285.03$266.26$304.66
2026-05-08$280.82$262.42$300.34
2026-05-09$289.52$271.64$307.03
2026-05-10$286.36$268.57$304.93
2026-05-11$272.30$251.81$289.52
2026-05-12$269.25$250.01$288.12
2026-05-13$266.54$247.84$285.96
2026-05-14$263.28$244.87$283.02
2026-05-15$259.13$240.38$277.69
E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Previsão de Preços de Commodities com IA