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Signal Detail

Кофе

AI-ответ

Кофе (KC) 30-day outlook: Падение. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 56mm vs ET0 27mm. M. Confidence 68%. (As of 2026-06-18)

KC
↓Падение⇄ADJUST
Текущая цена
$272.35
-1.77%
Консенсус
80%
Уверенность
68%
Уверенность решения68%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18.06.2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -21.77%

Кофе сейчас выглядит скорее медвежьим.

Вместо погони за ценой лучше действовать защитно или дождаться лучшей точки.

Daily reportScorecard
Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

Кофе сейчас выглядит скорее медвежьим. Вместо погони за ценой лучше действовать защитно или дождаться лучшей точки.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18.06.2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -21.77%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / KC] Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 56mm vs ET0 27mm. Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 24mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-23.4%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 6 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 16%: low prices likely reducing production incentives
Спрос
[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 15.5th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Quant 7d: bearish (-23.4%), consistent with demand softness
Макро
[Macro Crew / KC] Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 4 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). HIGH crisis level: elevated risk appetite for commodities. Quant 7d: bearish (-23.4%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Вместо погони за ценой лучше действовать защитно или дождаться лучшей точки.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

Кофе сейчас выглядит скорее медвежьим.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$213.05
-21.77%
$194.53 ~ $230.49
14d
$203.61
-25.24%
$184.46 ~ $221.28
30d
$212.20
-22.09%
$192.88 ~ $230.87
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
⇄ADJUST
Direction
↓Падение
Consensus
80%
Score
-0.458
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_kc
Direction
Падение
Confidence
66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

▼

Вердикт AI

Медвежий

Уверен.

62%

Согласие

100%

Agents

6/12

Голосование

Бычий
0%
Нейтр.
0%
Медвежий
100%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Brazil arabica harvest peak approaching — Santos export volumes typically surge June–August, adding supply pressure and weakening nearby futures
  • 2Bullish rule-based signals are grain/wheat logistics entirely unrelated to coffee; effective signal quality for KC is near-zero from that data
  • 3No coffee-specific port congestion, cold-chain disruption, or freight bottleneck identified that would create a supply-side squeeze
  • 4USD Strength From Persistent Fed Hawkishness
  • 5Mean Reversion After Historic Supply Shock Rally

Осн. риски

  • !Vietnamese robusta crop stress or unexpected Brazilian frost event (tail risk in June) could rapidly flip logistics from bearish to bullish
  • !Quant forecast magnitude (-23% in 7d) is extreme and may already be overshooting; a technical rebound could generate short-term counter-trend moves
  • !Renewed La Nina Weather Disruption In Brazil Or Vietnam Could Reverse Supply Outlook
  • !Broad Commodity Risk On Surge From Escalating Geopolitical Crisis Could Drag Coffee Higher

Анализ по группам

⬡Логист.sonnet-4.6

The rule-based bullish signals are entirely misattributed — they reference Kazakhstan wheat imports and Black Sea grain logistics, which have zero relevance to Coffee C futures.

◎Макроsonnet-4.6

Coffee at 273.6 cents/lb is at historically elevated levels following the 2024-2025 supply-shock rally; with no fresh catalyst, mean reversion dominates.

◉Спросsonnet-4.6

While Arabica coffee at the 15.5th percentile of its 52-week range ($273.6) should theoretically trigger roaster restocking and downstream demand recovery, the magnitude of the quant signal (-23.4%...

▲Глобал.sonnet-4.6

Technical alignment is clear — death cross, negative MACD, and multi-horizon quant consensus all confirm a structural downtrend consistent with mean-reversion pressure after KC's multi-year rally...

Правила vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Report
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Validation
Открыть scorecard и paper trading
Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-18$229.56$211.76$248.04
2026-06-19$225.58$207.45$242.97
2026-06-20$171.17$152.54$189.68
2026-06-21$168.14$149.75$186.10
2026-06-22$217.40$198.36$235.80
2026-06-23$214.82$195.46$232.32
2026-06-24$213.05$194.53$230.49
2026-06-25$209.89$190.90$227.50
2026-06-26$207.16$189.26$224.30
2026-06-27$154.23$134.98$170.75
2026-06-28$152.88$134.71$171.46
2026-06-29$203.98$185.41$221.79
2026-06-30$203.36$185.11$221.34
2026-07-01$203.61$184.46$221.28
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

USDA WASDENOAA ENSO/CFSv2CFTC COTNASA NDVIKAMISCME GroupFAO

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё