Signal Detail

قهوة

اجابة AI السريعة

قهوة (KC) 30-day outlook: محايد. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm.. Confidence 68%. (As of 2026-05-03)

KC
محايدADJUST
السعر الحالي
$279.05
-7.26%
مستوى الإجماع
58%
مستوى الثقة
68%
ثقة القرار68%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٤‏/٠٥‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٥٧ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%

قهوة لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

Summary

قراءة مبسطة

اقرأ الاتجاه والدليل والمخاطر أولاً ثم قرر كيف تنفذ.

قراءة سريعة

قهوة لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة. حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٤‏/٠٥‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٥٧ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%
Evidence basis
العرض
[Supply Crew / KC] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm. Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+0.6%), supply may be tightening. Seasonal: month 5 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 0%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (44%): potential supply-chain disruption. KG severe supply chains: 브라질 남부 서리 (Parana/Minas Gerais 커피 지대)
الطلب
[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 0.0th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), consistent with demand strength
الماكرو
[Macro Crew / KC] HIGH volatility regime (44%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), macro alignment
لماذا هذا الحكم
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

لماذا قد يكون الانتظار أفضل
i

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

ما الذي نتابعه بعد ذلك
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
السيناريو الأساسي

قهوة لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

مراقبة المخاطر
لا توجد حالياً خلافات كبيرة.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

مخطط السوق

المخطط مرجع بصري فقط؛ أما القرار الحقيقي فيأتي من الأدلة و debate أدناه.

البيانات متأخرة. راجع الأدلة وبطاقة الأداء معاً قبل القرار.
Quant

Quant Forecast

قارن نطاقات 7D و14D و30D في البنية نفسها.

7d
$280.82
+0.63%
$262.42 ~ $300.34
14d
$259.13
-7.14%
$240.38 ~ $277.69
30d
$253.05
-9.32%
$232.18 ~ $273.56
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

هنا تؤكد المنظومة أو تعدل أو تعكس قاعدة quant الأساسية.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
محايد
Consensus
58%
Score
+0.192
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

في ظروف الأزمة تصبح المحاكاة طبقة قرار إضافية.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_kc
Direction
هبوط
Confidence
66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

إجماع AI متعدد

تحليل متقاطع من وكلاء AI مستقلين

حكم AI

هبوطي

الثقة

45%

إجماع

64%

Agents

6/12

توزيع الأصوات

صعودي
36%
محايد
0%
هبوطي
64%

العوامل الرئيسية

  • 1Brazil main arabica harvest underway — seasonal supply flow increases without logistical bottleneck
  • 2Santos port (Brazil's primary coffee export hub) showing no congestion — physical export velocity unimpaired
  • 3BDI and ocean freight rates not flagging stress — no shipping cost premium to support elevated futures basis
  • 4Roaster Restocking At 52w Lows
  • 5Commercial Processor Margin Improvement Incentive

المخاطر الرئيسية

  • !Unexpected Santos port disruption or vessel congestion spike could rapidly reverse bearish logistics thesis
  • !Colombia or Vietnam weather-driven quality degradation could tighten physical supply and widen basis unexpectedly
  • !Brazilian Harvest Supply Flush Overwhelming Demand Bids
  • !Macro Slowdown Reducing Foodservice Cafe Traffic Volumes

ملخص تحليل الطاقم

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The complete absence of active logistics disruptions is itself a signal — coffee is entering Brazil's main arabica harvest window (April-September), and with Santos port functioning normally and no...

Demandsonnet-4.6

At the 0.0th percentile of its 52-week range, KC at $2.79/lb is genuinely attractive for commercial roasters and institutional buyers to rebuild depleted inventories — restocking cycles at value...

Supplysonnet-4.6

The frost risk signal in Parana/Minas Gerais is the dominant factor — May frost events in Brazil's Arabica belt are historically the most explosive supply shocks in KC history, and this alone...

Globalsonnet-4.6

KC arabica remains structurally weak against the broader soft commodity complex — the 12.2pp divergence vs CC and 9.9pp vs SB reflects coffee-specific supply pressure, likely from recovering...

القواعد مقابل AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

أزل سلوك التسوق وأبق الصفحة مركزة على الأدلة والتحقق والتنفيذ عبر الرسم البياني.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$306.79$288.84$325.92
2026-05-03$305.13$286.21$323.59
2026-05-04$292.28$272.13$309.86
2026-05-05$290.15$270.65$309.04
2026-05-06$288.02$269.33$306.74
2026-05-07$285.03$266.26$304.66
2026-05-08$280.82$262.42$300.34
2026-05-09$289.52$271.64$307.03
2026-05-10$286.36$268.57$304.93
2026-05-11$272.30$251.81$289.52
2026-05-12$269.25$250.01$288.12
2026-05-13$266.54$247.84$285.96
2026-05-14$263.28$244.87$283.02
2026-05-15$259.13$240.38$277.69
E-E-A-T

مصادر البيانات

المنهجية: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

اخر تحديث:

CropCast v2.0 — محرك تنبؤات أسعار السلع بالذكاء الاصطناعي