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Signal Detail

Coffee

AI Quick Answer

Coffee (KC) 30-day outlook: Neutral. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: The complete absence of active logistics disruptions is itself a signal — coffee. Confidence 68%. (As of 2026-05-03)

KC
—Neutral⇄ADJUST
Current Price
$279.05
-7.26%
Consensus
58%
Confidence
68%
decision confidence68%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
05/04/2026, 06:57 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%

Coffee is not showing a decisive directional edge yet.

A wait-and-observe posture is appropriate until conviction improves.

Daily reportScorecard
Summary

Plain-Language Call

Read direction, evidence, and risk before deciding how to execute.

Quick read

Coffee is not showing a decisive directional edge yet. A wait-and-observe posture is appropriate until conviction improves.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
05/04/2026, 06:57 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%
Evidence basis
Logistics (sonnet-4.6)
The complete absence of active logistics disruptions is itself a signal — coffee is entering Brazil's main arabica harvest window (April-September), and with Santos port functioning normally and no shipping route stress, the typical supply-disruption risk premium embedded in elevated prices (~$279/lb) has little logistical justification. The quant engine's 14d and 30d projections (-7.14%, -9.32%) are consistent with a market where physical supply is moving freely without friction. Clean logistics in a peak-harvest period removes a key bullish support leg.
Demand (sonnet-4.6)
At the 0.0th percentile of its 52-week range, KC at $2.79/lb is genuinely attractive for commercial roasters and institutional buyers to rebuild depleted inventories — restocking cycles at value levels are a reliable demand driver in soft commodities. However, the quant engine's 14d (-7.14%) and 30d (-9.32%) projections signal that supply-side pressure (likely Brazilian harvest flush) is still actively suppressing price discovery, meaning demand stimulus hasn't found a floor yet. I agree directionally but temper confidence sharply: demand will absorb, but timing of the inflection is uncertain and premature positioning into a falling knife carries real mark-to-market risk.
Supply (sonnet-4.6)
The frost risk signal in Parana/Minas Gerais is the dominant factor — May frost events in Brazil's Arabica belt are historically the most explosive supply shocks in KC history, and this alone justifies elevated bullish positioning. The severe moisture deficit (2mm vs 31mm ET0) compounds stress on flowering/cherry-set for the 2026/27 crop, while 52-week-low prices are already eroding producer reinvestment incentives across Colombia and Central America. However, I discount the rule-based confidence from 84 to 72 because the 14d/30d quant signals (-7.14%, -9.32%) indicate meaningful near-term selling pressure likely from harvest-season physical supply arriving in May — a counterforce the rule engine underweights.
Why this call
i

Brazil main arabica harvest underway — seasonal supply flow increases without logistical bottleneck

Why waiting may be better
i

Unexpected Santos port disruption or vessel congestion spike could rapidly reverse bearish logistics thesis

What to watch next
i

Colombia or Vietnam weather-driven quality degradation could tighten physical supply and widen basis unexpectedly

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
logistics
↑Bullish
▸ details
demand
—Neutral
▸ details
supply
↑Bullish
▸ details
global_commodity
↓Bearish
▸ details
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Unexpected Santos port disruption or vessel congestion spike could rapidly reverse bearish logistics thesis
Colombia or Vietnam weather-driven quality degradation could tighten physical supply and widen basis unexpectedly
Brazilian Harvest Supply Flush Overwhelming Demand Bids
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Base scenario

Coffee is not showing a decisive directional edge yet.

Risk watch
Unexpected Santos port disruption or vessel congestion spike could rapidly reverse bearish logistics thesis
Colombia or Vietnam weather-driven quality degradation could tighten physical supply and widen basis unexpectedly
Brazilian Harvest Supply Flush Overwhelming Demand Bids
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Market Chart

The chart is visual reference only; the actual call comes from the evidence and debate below.

Delayed data. Combine this chart with evidence and scorecard context.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D, and 30D ranges in the same structure.

7d
$280.82
+0.63%
$262.42 ~ $300.34
14d
$259.13
-7.14%
$240.38 ~ $277.69
30d
$253.05
-9.32%
$232.18 ~ $273.56
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

This is where the system confirms, adjusts, or overrides the quant base case.

Decision
⇄ADJUST
Direction
—Neutral
Consensus
58%
Score
+0.192
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

In crisis conditions, simulation becomes an extra decision layer.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_kc
Direction
Bearish
Confidence
66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Multi-Model Consensus

Cross-validated analysis from independent AI agents

▼

AI Verdict

Bearish

Confidence

45%

Agreement

64%

Agents

6/12

Vote Breakdown

Bullish
36%
Neutral
0%
Bearish
64%

Key Drivers

  • 1Brazil main arabica harvest underway — seasonal supply flow increases without logistical bottleneck
  • 2Santos port (Brazil's primary coffee export hub) showing no congestion — physical export velocity unimpaired
  • 3BDI and ocean freight rates not flagging stress — no shipping cost premium to support elevated futures basis
  • 4Roaster Restocking At 52w Lows
  • 5Commercial Processor Margin Improvement Incentive

Key Risks

  • !Unexpected Santos port disruption or vessel congestion spike could rapidly reverse bearish logistics thesis
  • !Colombia or Vietnam weather-driven quality degradation could tighten physical supply and widen basis unexpectedly
  • !Brazilian Harvest Supply Flush Overwhelming Demand Bids
  • !Macro Slowdown Reducing Foodservice Cafe Traffic Volumes

Crew Analysis Summary

⬡Logisticssonnet-4.6

The complete absence of active logistics disruptions is itself a signal — coffee is entering Brazil's main arabica harvest window (April-September), and with Santos port functioning normally and no...

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

At the 0.0th percentile of its 52-week range, KC at $2.79/lb is genuinely attractive for commercial roasters and institutional buyers to rebuild depleted inventories — restocking cycles at value...

◈Supplysonnet-4.6

The frost risk signal in Parana/Minas Gerais is the dominant factor — May frost events in Brazil's Arabica belt are historically the most explosive supply shocks in KC history, and this alone...

▲Globalsonnet-4.6

KC arabica remains structurally weak against the broader soft commodity complex — the 12.2pp divergence vs CC and 9.9pp vs SB reflects coffee-specific supply pressure, likely from recovering...

Rule-based vs AI Verdictdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remove shopping behavior and keep the page focused on evidence, scorecard validation, and chart execution.

Report
Open evidence report
Validation
Review scorecard and paper trading
Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$306.79$288.84$325.92
2026-05-03$305.13$286.21$323.59
2026-05-04$292.28$272.13$309.86
2026-05-05$290.15$270.65$309.04
2026-05-06$288.02$269.33$306.74
2026-05-07$285.03$266.26$304.66
2026-05-08$280.82$262.42$300.34
2026-05-09$289.52$271.64$307.03
2026-05-10$286.36$268.57$304.93
2026-05-11$272.30$251.81$289.52
2026-05-12$269.25$250.01$288.12
2026-05-13$266.54$247.84$285.96
2026-05-14$263.28$244.87$283.02
2026-05-15$259.13$240.38$277.69
E-E-A-T

Data Sources

USDA WASDENOAA ENSO/CFSv2CFTC COTNASA NDVIKAMISCME GroupFAO

Methodology: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

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