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Signal Detail

Café

Respuesta Rapida IA

Café (KC) 30-day outlook: Bajista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 56mm vs ET0 27mm. M. Confidence 68%. (As of 2026-06-18)

KC
↓Bajista⇄ADJUST
Precio Actual
$272.35
-1.77%
Consenso
80%
Confianza
68%
Confianza de la decisión68%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -21.77%

Café muestra un sesgo bajista por ahora.

En vez de perseguir precio, conviene un enfoque defensivo o esperar un mejor nivel.

Informe diarioScorecard
Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Café muestra un sesgo bajista por ahora. En vez de perseguir precio, conviene un enfoque defensivo o esperar un mejor nivel.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -21.77%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / KC] Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 56mm vs ET0 27mm. Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 24mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-23.4%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 6 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 16%: low prices likely reducing production incentives
Demanda
[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 15.5th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Quant 7d: bearish (-23.4%), consistent with demand softness
Macro
[Macro Crew / KC] Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 4 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). HIGH crisis level: elevated risk appetite for commodities. Quant 7d: bearish (-23.4%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

En vez de perseguir precio, conviene un enfoque defensivo o esperar un mejor nivel.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Café muestra un sesgo bajista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$213.05
-21.77%
$194.53 ~ $230.49
14d
$203.61
-25.24%
$184.46 ~ $221.28
30d
$212.20
-22.09%
$192.88 ~ $230.87
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
⇄ADJUST
Direction
↓Bajista
Consensus
80%
Score
-0.458
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_kc
Direction
Bajista
Confidence
66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

▼

Veredicto IA

Bajista

Confianza

62%

Acuerdo

100%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista
0%
Neutral
0%
Bajista
100%

Factores clave

  • 1Brazil arabica harvest peak approaching — Santos export volumes typically surge June–August, adding supply pressure and weakening nearby futures
  • 2Bullish rule-based signals are grain/wheat logistics entirely unrelated to coffee; effective signal quality for KC is near-zero from that data
  • 3No coffee-specific port congestion, cold-chain disruption, or freight bottleneck identified that would create a supply-side squeeze
  • 4USD Strength From Persistent Fed Hawkishness
  • 5Mean Reversion After Historic Supply Shock Rally

Riesgos clave

  • !Vietnamese robusta crop stress or unexpected Brazilian frost event (tail risk in June) could rapidly flip logistics from bearish to bullish
  • !Quant forecast magnitude (-23% in 7d) is extreme and may already be overshooting; a technical rebound could generate short-term counter-trend moves
  • !Renewed La Nina Weather Disruption In Brazil Or Vietnam Could Reverse Supply Outlook
  • !Broad Commodity Risk On Surge From Escalating Geopolitical Crisis Could Drag Coffee Higher

Resumen por Equipo

⬡Logisticssonnet-4.6

The rule-based bullish signals are entirely misattributed — they reference Kazakhstan wheat imports and Black Sea grain logistics, which have zero relevance to Coffee C futures.

◎Macrosonnet-4.6

Coffee at 273.6 cents/lb is at historically elevated levels following the 2024-2025 supply-shock rally; with no fresh catalyst, mean reversion dominates.

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

While Arabica coffee at the 15.5th percentile of its 52-week range ($273.6) should theoretically trigger roaster restocking and downstream demand recovery, the magnitude of the quant signal (-23.4%...

▲Globalsonnet-4.6

Technical alignment is clear — death cross, negative MACD, and multi-horizon quant consensus all confirm a structural downtrend consistent with mean-reversion pressure after KC's multi-year rally...

Reglas vs IAdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Report
Abrir informe de evidencia
Validation
Ver scorecard y paper trading
Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-18$229.56$211.76$248.04
2026-06-19$225.58$207.45$242.97
2026-06-20$171.17$152.54$189.68
2026-06-21$168.14$149.75$186.10
2026-06-22$217.40$198.36$235.80
2026-06-23$214.82$195.46$232.32
2026-06-24$213.05$194.53$230.49
2026-06-25$209.89$190.90$227.50
2026-06-26$207.16$189.26$224.30
2026-06-27$154.23$134.98$170.75
2026-06-28$152.88$134.71$171.46
2026-06-29$203.98$185.41$221.79
2026-06-30$203.36$185.11$221.34
2026-07-01$203.61$184.46$221.28
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

USDA WASDENOAA ENSO/CFSv2CFTC COTNASA NDVIKAMISCME GroupFAO

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

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