Signal Detail

Café

Respuesta Rapida IA

Café (KC) 30-day outlook: Neutral. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm.. Confidence 68%. (As of 2026-05-03)

KC
NeutralADJUST
Precio Actual
$279.05
-7.26%
Consenso
58%
Confianza
68%
Confianza de la decisión68%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%

Café todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Café todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara. Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / KC] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm. Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+0.6%), supply may be tightening. Seasonal: month 5 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 0%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (44%): potential supply-chain disruption. KG severe supply chains: 브라질 남부 서리 (Parana/Minas Gerais 커피 지대)
Demanda
[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 0.0th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / KC] HIGH volatility regime (44%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Café todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$280.82
+0.63%
$262.42 ~ $300.34
14d
$259.13
-7.14%
$240.38 ~ $277.69
30d
$253.05
-9.32%
$232.18 ~ $273.56
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Neutral
Consensus
58%
Score
+0.192
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_kc
Direction
Bajista
Confidence
66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Bajista

Confianza

45%

Acuerdo

64%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista
36%
Neutral
0%
Bajista
64%

Factores clave

  • 1Brazil main arabica harvest underway — seasonal supply flow increases without logistical bottleneck
  • 2Santos port (Brazil's primary coffee export hub) showing no congestion — physical export velocity unimpaired
  • 3BDI and ocean freight rates not flagging stress — no shipping cost premium to support elevated futures basis
  • 4Roaster Restocking At 52w Lows
  • 5Commercial Processor Margin Improvement Incentive

Riesgos clave

  • !Unexpected Santos port disruption or vessel congestion spike could rapidly reverse bearish logistics thesis
  • !Colombia or Vietnam weather-driven quality degradation could tighten physical supply and widen basis unexpectedly
  • !Brazilian Harvest Supply Flush Overwhelming Demand Bids
  • !Macro Slowdown Reducing Foodservice Cafe Traffic Volumes

Resumen por Equipo

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The complete absence of active logistics disruptions is itself a signal — coffee is entering Brazil's main arabica harvest window (April-September), and with Santos port functioning normally and no...

Demandsonnet-4.6

At the 0.0th percentile of its 52-week range, KC at $2.79/lb is genuinely attractive for commercial roasters and institutional buyers to rebuild depleted inventories — restocking cycles at value...

Supplysonnet-4.6

The frost risk signal in Parana/Minas Gerais is the dominant factor — May frost events in Brazil's Arabica belt are historically the most explosive supply shocks in KC history, and this alone...

Globalsonnet-4.6

KC arabica remains structurally weak against the broader soft commodity complex — the 12.2pp divergence vs CC and 9.9pp vs SB reflects coffee-specific supply pressure, likely from recovering...

Reglas vs IAdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$306.79$288.84$325.92
2026-05-03$305.13$286.21$323.59
2026-05-04$292.28$272.13$309.86
2026-05-05$290.15$270.65$309.04
2026-05-06$288.02$269.33$306.74
2026-05-07$285.03$266.26$304.66
2026-05-08$280.82$262.42$300.34
2026-05-09$289.52$271.64$307.03
2026-05-10$286.36$268.57$304.93
2026-05-11$272.30$251.81$289.52
2026-05-12$269.25$250.01$288.12
2026-05-13$266.54$247.84$285.96
2026-05-14$263.28$244.87$283.02
2026-05-15$259.13$240.38$277.69
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA