←
Signal Detail

Kopi

Jawaban Cepat AI

Kopi (KC) 30-day outlook: Turun. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 56mm vs ET0 27mm. M. Confidence 68%. (As of 2026-06-18)

KC
↓Turun⇄ADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$272.35
-1.77%
Konsensus
80%
Kepercayaan
68%
Confidence keputusan68%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00.06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -21.77%

Kopi saat ini condong bearish.

Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Laporan harianScorecard
Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Kopi saat ini condong bearish. Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00.06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -21.77%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / KC] Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 56mm vs ET0 27mm. Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 24mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-23.4%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 6 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 16%: low prices likely reducing production incentives
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 15.5th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Quant 7d: bearish (-23.4%), consistent with demand softness
Makro
[Macro Crew / KC] Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 4 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). HIGH crisis level: elevated risk appetite for commodities. Quant 7d: bearish (-23.4%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Kopi saat ini condong bearish.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$213.05
-21.77%
$194.53 ~ $230.49
14d
$203.61
-25.24%
$184.46 ~ $221.28
30d
$212.20
-22.09%
$192.88 ~ $230.87
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
⇄ADJUST
Direction
↓Turun
Consensus
80%
Score
-0.458
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_kc
Direction
Turun
Confidence
66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

▼

Keputusan AI

Turun

Keyakinan

62%

Kesepakatan

100%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
0%
Netral
0%
Turun
100%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Brazil arabica harvest peak approaching — Santos export volumes typically surge June–August, adding supply pressure and weakening nearby futures
  • 2Bullish rule-based signals are grain/wheat logistics entirely unrelated to coffee; effective signal quality for KC is near-zero from that data
  • 3No coffee-specific port congestion, cold-chain disruption, or freight bottleneck identified that would create a supply-side squeeze
  • 4USD Strength From Persistent Fed Hawkishness
  • 5Mean Reversion After Historic Supply Shock Rally

Risiko Utama

  • !Vietnamese robusta crop stress or unexpected Brazilian frost event (tail risk in June) could rapidly flip logistics from bearish to bullish
  • !Quant forecast magnitude (-23% in 7d) is extreme and may already be overshooting; a technical rebound could generate short-term counter-trend moves
  • !Renewed La Nina Weather Disruption In Brazil Or Vietnam Could Reverse Supply Outlook
  • !Broad Commodity Risk On Surge From Escalating Geopolitical Crisis Could Drag Coffee Higher

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

⬡Logisticssonnet-4.6

The rule-based bullish signals are entirely misattributed — they reference Kazakhstan wheat imports and Black Sea grain logistics, which have zero relevance to Coffee C futures.

◎Macrosonnet-4.6

Coffee at 273.6 cents/lb is at historically elevated levels following the 2024-2025 supply-shock rally; with no fresh catalyst, mean reversion dominates.

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

While Arabica coffee at the 15.5th percentile of its 52-week range ($273.6) should theoretically trigger roaster restocking and downstream demand recovery, the magnitude of the quant signal (-23.4%...

▲Globalsonnet-4.6

Technical alignment is clear — death cross, negative MACD, and multi-horizon quant consensus all confirm a structural downtrend consistent with mean-reversion pressure after KC's multi-year rally...

Aturan vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Report
Buka laporan bukti
Validation
Lihat scorecard dan paper trading
Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-18$229.56$211.76$248.04
2026-06-19$225.58$207.45$242.97
2026-06-20$171.17$152.54$189.68
2026-06-21$168.14$149.75$186.10
2026-06-22$217.40$198.36$235.80
2026-06-23$214.82$195.46$232.32
2026-06-24$213.05$194.53$230.49
2026-06-25$209.89$190.90$227.50
2026-06-26$207.16$189.26$224.30
2026-06-27$154.23$134.98$170.75
2026-06-28$152.88$134.71$171.46
2026-06-29$203.98$185.41$221.79
2026-06-30$203.36$185.11$221.34
2026-07-01$203.61$184.46$221.28
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

USDA WASDENOAA ENSO/CFSv2CFTC COTNASA NDVIKAMISCME GroupFAO

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui:

CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI