Signal Detail

Kopi

Jawaban Cepat AI

Kopi (KC) 30-day outlook: Netral. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm.. Confidence 68%. (As of 2026-05-03)

KC
NetralADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$279.05
-7.26%
Konsensus
58%
Kepercayaan
68%
Confidence keputusan68%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06.57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%

Kopi belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Kopi belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas. Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06.57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 0.63%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / KC] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm. Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+0.6%), supply may be tightening. Seasonal: month 5 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 0%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (44%): potential supply-chain disruption. KG severe supply chains: 브라질 남부 서리 (Parana/Minas Gerais 커피 지대)
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 0.0th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), consistent with demand strength
Makro
[Macro Crew / KC] HIGH volatility regime (44%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.6%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Kopi belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$280.82
+0.63%
$262.42 ~ $300.34
14d
$259.13
-7.14%
$240.38 ~ $277.69
30d
$253.05
-9.32%
$232.18 ~ $273.56
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Netral
Consensus
58%
Score
+0.192
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_kc
Direction
Turun
Confidence
66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Turun

Keyakinan

45%

Kesepakatan

64%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
36%
Netral
0%
Turun
64%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Brazil main arabica harvest underway — seasonal supply flow increases without logistical bottleneck
  • 2Santos port (Brazil's primary coffee export hub) showing no congestion — physical export velocity unimpaired
  • 3BDI and ocean freight rates not flagging stress — no shipping cost premium to support elevated futures basis
  • 4Roaster Restocking At 52w Lows
  • 5Commercial Processor Margin Improvement Incentive

Risiko Utama

  • !Unexpected Santos port disruption or vessel congestion spike could rapidly reverse bearish logistics thesis
  • !Colombia or Vietnam weather-driven quality degradation could tighten physical supply and widen basis unexpectedly
  • !Brazilian Harvest Supply Flush Overwhelming Demand Bids
  • !Macro Slowdown Reducing Foodservice Cafe Traffic Volumes

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The complete absence of active logistics disruptions is itself a signal — coffee is entering Brazil's main arabica harvest window (April-September), and with Santos port functioning normally and no...

Demandsonnet-4.6

At the 0.0th percentile of its 52-week range, KC at $2.79/lb is genuinely attractive for commercial roasters and institutional buyers to rebuild depleted inventories — restocking cycles at value...

Supplysonnet-4.6

The frost risk signal in Parana/Minas Gerais is the dominant factor — May frost events in Brazil's Arabica belt are historically the most explosive supply shocks in KC history, and this alone...

Globalsonnet-4.6

KC arabica remains structurally weak against the broader soft commodity complex — the 12.2pp divergence vs CC and 9.9pp vs SB reflects coffee-specific supply pressure, likely from recovering...

Aturan vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$306.79$288.84$325.92
2026-05-03$305.13$286.21$323.59
2026-05-04$292.28$272.13$309.86
2026-05-05$290.15$270.65$309.04
2026-05-06$288.02$269.33$306.74
2026-05-07$285.03$266.26$304.66
2026-05-08$280.82$262.42$300.34
2026-05-09$289.52$271.64$307.03
2026-05-10$286.36$268.57$304.93
2026-05-11$272.30$251.81$289.52
2026-05-12$269.25$250.01$288.12
2026-05-13$266.54$247.84$285.96
2026-05-14$263.28$244.87$283.02
2026-05-15$259.13$240.38$277.69
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

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CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI