Signal Detail

غاز-طبيعي

اجابة AI السريعة

غاز-طبيعي (NG) 30-day outlook: محايد. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-14.7%), supply pressure easing. . Confidence 60%. (As of 2026-08-02)

NG
محايدADJUST
السعر الحالي
$2.79
+1.23%
مستوى الإجماع
63%
مستوى الثقة
60%
ثقة القرار60%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٢‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -14.71%

غاز-طبيعي لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

Summary

قراءة مبسطة

اقرأ الاتجاه والدليل والمخاطر أولاً ثم قرر كيف تنفذ.

قراءة سريعة

غاز-طبيعي لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة. حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٢‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -14.71%
Evidence basis
العرض
[Supply Crew / NG] Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-14.7%), supply pressure easing. Wide CI range (35%): high supply uncertainty. 52w position 5%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (36%): potential supply-chain disruption
الطلب
[Demand Crew / NG] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 5.4th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Quant 7d: bearish (-14.7%), consistent with demand softness
الماكرو
[Macro Crew / NG] HIGH volatility regime (36%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bearish (-14.7%), macro alignment
لماذا هذا الحكم
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

لماذا قد يكون الانتظار أفضل
i

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

ما الذي نتابعه بعد ذلك
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
السيناريو الأساسي

غاز-طبيعي لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

مراقبة المخاطر
لا توجد حالياً خلافات كبيرة.
NG swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 8 active signals.
Chart

مخطط السوق

المخطط مرجع بصري فقط؛ أما القرار الحقيقي فيأتي من الأدلة و debate أدناه.

البيانات متأخرة. راجع الأدلة وبطاقة الأداء معاً قبل القرار.
Quant

Quant Forecast

قارن نطاقات 7D و14D و30D في البنية نفسها.

7d
$2.38
-14.71%
$1.89 ~ $2.87
14d
$2.30
-17.49%
$1.83 ~ $2.79
30d
$2.08
-25.39%
$1.62 ~ $2.58
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

هنا تؤكد المنظومة أو تعدل أو تعكس قاعدة quant الأساسية.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
محايد
Consensus
63%
Score
-0.335
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

في ظروف الأزمة تصبح المحاكاة طبقة قرار إضافية.

Run
swarm_20260718_211054_ng
Direction
هبوط
Confidence
90.6%

NG swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 8 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for NG

NG
NG
NG
82%
Hit rate
AI Debate

إجماع AI متعدد

تحليل متقاطع من وكلاء AI مستقلين

حكم AI

هبوطي

الثقة

53%

إجماع

72%

Agents

6/12

توزيع الأصوات

صعودي
12%
محايد
17%
هبوطي
72%

العوامل الرئيسية

  • 1가격이 52주 레인지 최하위권(5퍼센타일)에 위치 — 과매도/투매 신호
  • 230일 -25.39% 급락은 통상 스펙 매도세 소진 국면과 맞물리는 경우가 많음
  • 3NG 특유의 계절적 수요 반전 및 숏스퀴즈 이력
  • 4Peak Summer Cooling Demand Not Offsetting Selloff
  • 5Storage Injection Pace Likely Bearish For Demand Balance

المخاطر الرئيسية

  • !구조적 공급과잉(생산량 증가)이 지속되면 저가가 새로운 정상 레인지로 고착될 위험
  • !COT/옵션 스큐 원자료 부재로 실제 포지셔닝 극단 여부를 검증할 수 없음
  • !Oversold Bounce Risk At 5th Percentile Of 52w Range
  • !Hurricane Or Heatwave Shock Could Spike Cooling Demand Suddenly

ملخص تحليل الطاقم

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

가격이 52주 레인지 5퍼센타일까지 밀린 상태에서 최근 30일간 -25% 급락은 전형적인 투매/항복(capitulation) 국면의 특징이며, NG는 계절적 변동성과 정책·기상 이벤트에 따른 숏스퀴즈 이력이 반복되는 상품이라 역추세 반등 가능성이 크레 관측된다. 다만 제공된 데이터에 COT 포지셔닝이나 옵션 스큐의 구체적 수치가 없어 확신도는 제한적이다.

Demandsonnet-4.6

The rule-based 'kr_holiday_demand' factor (Chuseok prep) is a data-quality red flag for NG — Korean harvest-holiday buying drives food/agri commodities, not US-benchmarked natural gas, so this looks...

Globalsonnet-4.6

The contango-like term structure (price<SMA20<SMA50<SMA200) alongside a death cross points to persistent storage surplus rather than a temporary dislocation — this is consistent with elevated...

Macrosonnet-4.6

The macro crew's bullish call leans on broad-commodity diffusion metrics (8/11 above SMA200, 8 golden crosses) that are not NG-specific and can be driven by unrelated moves in metals or softs; NG...

القواعد مقابل AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

أزل سلوك التسوق وأبق الصفحة مركزة على الأدلة والتحقق والتنفيذ عبر الرسم البياني.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$2.22$1.76$2.71
2026-08-02$2.19$1.71$2.69
2026-08-03$2.50$1.98$2.99
2026-08-04$2.45$1.96$2.97
2026-08-05$2.45$1.90$2.93
2026-08-06$2.39$1.94$2.86
2026-08-07$2.38$1.89$2.87
2026-08-08$2.03$1.53$2.51
2026-08-09$2.02$1.54$2.51
2026-08-10$2.34$1.86$2.79
2026-08-11$2.32$1.84$2.75
2026-08-12$2.33$1.84$2.81
2026-08-13$2.29$1.82$2.76
2026-08-14$2.30$1.83$2.79
E-E-A-T

مصادر البيانات

المنهجية: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

اخر تحديث:

CropCast v2.0 — محرك تنبؤات أسعار السلع بالذكاء الاصطناعي