Signal Detail

Газ

AI-ответ

Газ (NG) 30-day outlook: Боковик. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-17.8%), supply pressure easing. . Confidence 63%. (As of 2026-05-03)

NG
БоковикADJUST
Текущая цена
$2.78
+0.47%
Консенсус
72%
Уверенность
63%
Уверенность решения63%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04.05.2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -17.79%

Газ пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

Газ пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению. Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04.05.2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -17.79%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / NG] Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-17.8%), supply pressure easing. Wide CI range (33%): high supply uncertainty. Seasonal: month 5 typically sees new supply arriving for NG. 52w position 5%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (36%): potential supply-chain disruption
Спрос
[Demand Crew / NG] Price at 5.2th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Expensive crude drives fuel switching toward natural gas. Quant 7d: bearish (-17.8%), consistent with demand softness
Макро
[Macro Crew / NG] HIGH volatility regime (36%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-17.8%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

Газ пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
NG swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$2.29
-17.79%
$1.83 ~ $2.75
14d
$2.24
-19.28%
$1.76 ~ $2.71
30d
$1.90
-31.66%
$1.43 ~ $2.41
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Боковик
Consensus
72%
Score
-0.331
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260412_063047_ng
Direction
Падение
Confidence
66.4%

NG swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for NG

NG
NG
NG
81%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Медвежий

Уверен.

61%

Согласие

87%

Agents

6/12

Голосование

Бычий
14%
Нейтр.
0%
Медвежий
87%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Shoulder Season Demand Trough
  • 2Storage Injection Season Supply Pressure
  • 3Magnitude Of Quant Bearish Signal Too Large To Ignore
  • 4Price Floor Not Yet Established At 2.78
  • 5Shoulder Season Demand Trough May June

Осн. риски

  • !Unexpected Early Summer Heat Dome Could Spike Power Gen Demand
  • !LNG Export Surge If European Demand Tightens Unexpectedly
  • !Rsi 63 Divergence Signals Accumulation Near Lows Potential Snap Rally
  • !Producer Breakeven Floor Circa 190 200 Limits Downside Quant Target Aggressive

Анализ по группам

Спросsonnet-4.6

While low prices theoretically attract restocking, we are squarely in shoulder season (May), when heating demand has collapsed and cooling demand has not yet materialized — this is structurally the...

Глобал.sonnet-4.6

NG at $2.78 sits in structurally weak territory: death cross confirmed, seasonal headwinds in May are well-documented as shoulder season demand collapses, and European LNG storage refill pace has...

Логист.sonnet-4.6

May 2026 places NG squarely in the injection season shoulder, where heating demand collapses and storage operators pivot to refill draws from the prior winter — a structurally bearish logistics...

Предлож.sonnet-4.6

May marks the heart of injection season — storage builds accelerate while heating demand collapses and cooling demand hasn't yet materialized, creating a structural supply overhang that reinforces...

Правила vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$2.07$1.59$2.54
2026-05-03$2.07$1.59$2.55
2026-05-04$2.30$1.83$2.79
2026-05-05$2.29$1.84$2.77
2026-05-06$2.31$1.81$2.80
2026-05-07$2.27$1.79$2.77
2026-05-08$2.29$1.83$2.75
2026-05-09$2.06$1.58$2.48
2026-05-10$2.05$1.62$2.56
2026-05-11$2.29$1.79$2.76
2026-05-12$2.27$1.78$2.72
2026-05-13$2.28$1.79$2.77
2026-05-14$2.24$1.82$2.71
2026-05-15$2.24$1.76$2.71
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё