Signal Detail

Avena

Respuesta Rapida IA

Avena (ZO) 30-day outlook: Alcista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in us_corn_belt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 29. Confidence 85%. (As of 2026-06-18)

ZO
AlcistaCONFIRM
Precio Actual
$306.75
+0.74%
Consenso
87%
Confianza
85%
Confianza de la decisión85%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 10.56%

Avena muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Avena muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora. Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 10.56%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / ZO] Moisture deficit in us_corn_belt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 29mm. Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+12.1%), supply may be tightening. Seasonal: month 6 is typically a tight-supply period for ZO. High volatility (35%): potential supply-chain disruption
Demanda
[Demand Crew / ZO] LE at 52w 82%: profitable feeding encourages ZO demand. Price at 22.0th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Quant 7d: bullish (+12.1%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / ZO] Natural gas at 52w 15%: fertilizer costs low. HIGH volatility regime (35%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 4 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). HIGH crisis level: elevated risk appetite for commodities. Quant 7d: bullish (+12.1%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Avena muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
ZO swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$339.16
+10.56%
$323.46 ~ $354.20
14d
$344.96
+12.46%
$330.85 ~ $360.51
30d
$333.03
+8.57%
$318.05 ~ $347.68
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
CONFIRM
Direction
Alcista
Consensus
87%
Score
+1.116
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260618_073148_zo
Direction
Alcista
Confidence
92%

ZO swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (1개)폭염 경고다수 선물 고변동성 (3개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZO

ZO
ZO
ZO
72%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Alcista

Confianza

63%

Acuerdo

100%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista
100%
Neutral
0%
Bajista
0%

Factores clave

  • 1RSI 14.1 is a historically rare capitulation extreme — contrarian long signal with high mean-reversion probability
  • 2Quant model bullish at +12% 7-day independently supports price recovery thesis
  • 3ZO's low liquidity means drawdowns overshoot fundamentals and snap back faster than liquid contracts
  • 4Severe ET0 Precip Deficit June Grain Fill
  • 5Old Crop Drawdown Seasonality June

Riesgos clave

  • !Broad commodity complex bearish (6/8 falling) reflects macro/USD pressure that can override idiosyncratic signals
  • !Illiquid markets can sustain extreme RSI readings longer than models expect — oversold can become more oversold
  • !Canadian Oat Crop Conditions Unknown Could Offset Us Stress
  • !35pct Volatility Elevated Mean Reversion Risk If Rains Materialize

Resumen por Equipo

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

RSI at 14.1 is not merely oversold — it signals a probable selling climax or capitulation event, a level so extreme that most motivated sellers have likely already exited.

Supplysonnet-4.6

The ET0/precip ratio of 29mm demand vs 4mm actual is a severe 7:1 deficit — during June grain-fill for oats, this level of moisture stress historically translates to meaningful yield penalties, and...

Globalsonnet-4.6

ZO (Oats) presents a credible mean-reversion bounce setup: deeply oversold RSI combined with an intact Golden Cross structure (SMA50 > SMA200) suggests the selloff is exhausting against a medium-term...

Demandsonnet-4.6

Below-average pricing at the 22nd percentile of the 52-week range is the strongest demand signal here — food processors (oatmeal, granola, breakfast cereals) will accelerate procurement at these...

Reglas vs IAdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-18$334.75$319.68$350.11
2026-06-19$334.46$319.52$349.60
2026-06-20$368.21$353.40$383.75
2026-06-21$369.05$353.53$384.77
2026-06-22$337.29$321.01$352.09
2026-06-23$338.88$323.93$354.63
2026-06-24$339.16$323.46$354.20
2026-06-25$340.81$326.42$355.80
2026-06-26$340.86$324.97$357.03
2026-06-27$374.81$358.39$390.02
2026-06-28$375.68$360.06$390.72
2026-06-29$343.80$328.77$358.25
2026-06-30$345.11$330.09$360.78
2026-07-01$344.96$330.85$360.51
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA