Cual es el pronostico del precio de Azúcar en 30 dias?

30-day forecast: $13.41 (-10.41%), range: $12.65–$14.19.

Como empezar a operar futuros de Azúcar?

Azúcar (SB) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

Que factores afectan el precio de Azúcar?

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

Cual es la precision de las predicciones de CropCast para Azúcar?

Hit rate: 98.7% (74/75). Wrong calls stay visible.

Pronóstico de Precio Azúcar 2026 — IA

—Neutral⇄ADJUST

Precio Actual

$14.97

+2.67%

Consenso

70%

Confianza

66%

Confianza de la decisión66%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -4.48%

Azúcar todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Informe diario Scorecard

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Azúcar todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara. Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -4.48%

Evidence basis

Oferta

[Supply Crew / SB] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-4.5%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 5 is typically a tight-supply period for SB. KG severe supply chains: 다중 비료 생산국 동시 차질 (러시아 제재 + 중국 수출규제 + 중동 분쟁)

Demanda

[Demand Crew / SB] High crude makes ethanol production attractive, diverting sugarcane from sugar output. Quant 7d: bearish (-4.5%), consistent with demand softness

Macro

[Macro Crew / SB] Crude oil at 52w 81%: high energy = production cost push for SB. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-4.5%), macro alignment

Por qué esta lectura

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Qué vigilar después

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Escenario base

Azúcar todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Riesgo

No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.

SB swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.

Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.

Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

$14.30

-4.48%

$13.53 ~ $15.04

14d

$14.04

-6.24%

$13.23 ~ $14.83

30d

$13.41

-10.41%

$12.65 ~ $14.19

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

—Neutral

Consensus

70%

Score

-0.338

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run

swarm_20260418_063433_sb

Direction

Alcista

Confidence

91%

SB swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.

LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단SB 52주 극단

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for SB

99%

Hit rate

AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

▼

Veredicto IA

Bajista

Confianza

62%

Acuerdo

83%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista

17%

Neutral

Bajista

83%

Factores clave

1Brazil peak crush season (May) = maximum raw sugar supply hitting export market, bearish basis widening expected
2~95% of shipping signals are grain-related (wheat/soy/corn) — data quality issue inflating rule-based bullish score
3Quant model projects -10.4% over 30d, consistent with seasonal supply peak and soft demand fundamentals at 14.97 c/lb
4RSI 70.1 overbought at current price 14.97 — momentum exhaustion signal without extreme speculative positioning confirmation
523 event impacts with net -0.13 directional score suggests bearish news flow is present but not overwhelming

Riesgos clave

!Red Sea/Suez disruptions could tighten freight capacity for sugar tankers unexpectedly, compressing bearish move
!Weather disruption in Center-South Brazil crushing region could delay supply and flip bias quickly
!Broad commodity momentum could drag SB higher despite fundamentals — crowded long positions in energy/metals spilling into softs
!Event severity averaging 1.0 may include supply disruption news (weather, Brazil/India crop) that could rapidly flip sentiment bullish

Resumen por Equipo

⬡Logisticssonnet-4.6

The rule-based system's 'bullish' shipping signals are almost entirely grain-related (Russian wheat, Brazilian soy/corn) — noise with minimal relevance to sugar (SB).

◆Sentimentsonnet-4.6

RSI at 70.1 sits just at the overbought threshold — not extreme enough to call a definitive reversal, but combined with 23 events netting a bearish directional bias, the path of least resistance...

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

At $14.97/lb, Sugar #11 is trading at historically subdued levels, yet demand catalysts remain absent.

◎Macrosonnet-4.6

The Brazil ethanol diversion dynamic is the pivotal macro driver here: with crude near 52-week highs, Brazilian mills rationally maximize ethanol output over raw sugar, tightening global supply —...

Reglas vs IAdisagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Report

Abrir informe de evidencia

Validation

Ver scorecard y paper trading

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-05-02	$14.08	$13.30	$14.85
2026-05-03	$14.11	$13.30	$14.91
2026-05-04	$14.25	$13.55	$15.03
2026-05-05	$14.30	$13.55	$15.13
2026-05-06	$14.30	$13.51	$15.10
2026-05-07	$14.30	$13.52	$15.09
2026-05-08	$14.30	$13.53	$15.04
2026-05-09	$14.15	$13.40	$14.92
2026-05-10	$14.12	$13.35	$14.91
2026-05-11	$14.20	$13.46	$14.94
2026-05-12	$14.20	$13.36	$14.91
2026-05-13	$14.14	$13.32	$14.89
2026-05-14	$14.08	$13.29	$14.83
2026-05-15	$14.04	$13.23	$14.83

E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion: 04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)