Signal Detail

Jagung

Jawaban Cepat AI

Jagung (ZC) 30-day outlook: Netral. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in us_corn_belt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 34. Confidence 71%. (As of 2026-05-03)

ZC
NetralADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$480.25
+3.34%
Konsensus
71%
Kepercayaan
71%
Confidence keputusan71%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06.57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -5.86%

Jagung belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Jagung belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas. Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06.57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -5.86%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / ZC] Moisture deficit in us_corn_belt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 34mm. Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 2mm vs ET0 demand 31mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-5.9%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 5 is typically a tight-supply period for ZC. 52w position 100%: high prices incentivizing production expansion. KG severe supply chains: 고병원성 조류독감(HPAI) 대규모 발생, 다중 비료 생산국 동시 차질 (러시아 제재 + 중국 수출규제 + 중동 분쟁)
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / ZC] Crude oil at 52w 81% ($102): ethanol blending economics favorable, boosting ZC demand. LE at 52w 89%: profitable feeding encourages ZC demand. Summer driving season boosts ethanol/corn demand. Price at 100.0th percentile of 52w range — elevated prices historically reduce discretionary consumption and incentivize substitution. Quant 7d: bearish (-5.9%), consistent with demand softness
Makro
[Macro Crew / ZC] Crude oil at 52w 81%: high energy = production cost push for ZC. Natural gas at 52w 5%: fertilizer costs low. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence sentiment: 6 bearish vs 2 bullish. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-5.9%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Jagung belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
ZC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 2 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$452.10
-5.86%
$441.32 ~ $463.80
14d
$448.49
-6.61%
$437.12 ~ $459.67
30d
$458.82
-4.46%
$446.71 ~ $470.65
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Netral
Consensus
71%
Score
-0.379
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260424_063628_zc
Direction
Naik
Confidence
77.6%

ZC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 2 active signals.

Russian grain exporters in crisis due to strong rubles and low prices - UkrAgroCHIGH 인사이트 49개 동시
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZC

ZC
ZC
ZC
22%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Turun

Keyakinan

69%

Kesepakatan

85%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
15%
Netral
0%
Turun
85%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1RSI 90 extreme — historically marks exhaustion tops in agricultural futures, not breakout continuation
  • 2Bearish news/event flow diverging from price at 52w high — classic smart-money distribution pattern
  • 3Broad commodity rally breadth (8/9) signals late-cycle crowding, not fresh momentum — contrarian sell signal
  • 4Rsi 90 Extreme Overbought Reversal Risk
  • 5Livestock Corn Ratios Demand Destruction Underway

Risiko Utama

  • !Macro commodity supercycle or USD weakness could extend the move beyond technical extremes
  • !Unexpected weather/supply shock (drought, La Niña escalation) could invalidate all sentiment signals quickly
  • !May Planting Weather Scare Could Reignite Weather Premium Sharply
  • !Backwardation Physical Tightness May Delay Or Cap Downside

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

RSI at 90 is not merely overbought — it represents a historically extreme reading that in corn futures has consistently preceded sharp mean-reversion, not continuation.

Globalsonnet-4.6

RSI at 90 with price above the upper Bollinger Band at the 52-week high is a historically reliable mean-reversion setup — this triple confluence rarely sustains without a correction.

Demandsonnet-4.6

While ethanol blending economics (crude at $102) and strong LE feed margins are genuine demand positives, corn trading at the 100th percentile of its 52-week range is the overriding demand-side signal.

Macrosonnet-4.6

The rule-based bullish call rests on a thin net score (+1) and contains an internal contradiction: low natural gas prices mean cheaper fertilizer, which expands supply margins and is actually bearish...

Aturan vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$462.65$450.73$474.25
2026-05-03$461.93$450.15$472.93
2026-05-04$455.18$443.77$466.12
2026-05-05$454.28$442.85$465.99
2026-05-06$453.84$442.22$464.79
2026-05-07$453.64$442.36$465.44
2026-05-08$452.10$441.32$463.80
2026-05-09$457.34$445.76$469.24
2026-05-10$456.67$445.52$468.21
2026-05-11$450.07$438.39$461.44
2026-05-12$449.42$437.84$461.29
2026-05-13$449.32$438.34$460.26
2026-05-14$449.54$438.26$461.05
2026-05-15$448.49$437.12$459.67
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui:

CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI