Signal Detail

Jagung

Jawaban Cepat AI

Jagung (ZC) 30-day outlook: Turun. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Excess moisture in us_corn_belt: precip 66mm vs ET0 29mm. Moi. Confidence 73%. (As of 2026-08-02)

ZC
TurunADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$463.75
+4.04%
Konsensus
83%
Kepercayaan
73%
Confidence keputusan73%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 03.05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -6.81%

Jagung saat ini condong bearish.

Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Jagung saat ini condong bearish. Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 03.05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -6.81%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / ZC] Excess moisture in us_corn_belt: precip 66mm vs ET0 29mm. Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm. Excess moisture in argentina_rosario: precip 34mm vs ET0 13mm. El Nino phase: favorable US growing conditions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-6.8%), supply pressure easing. 52w position 87%: high prices incentivizing production expansion
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / ZC] Crude oil surged +3.8% today: ethanol demand impulse. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 87.4th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-6.8%), consistent with demand softness
Makro
[Macro Crew / ZC] Natural gas at 52w 5%: fertilizer costs low. Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bearish (-6.8%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Jagung saat ini condong bearish.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
ZC swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$432.17
-6.81%
$418.99 ~ $446.70
14d
$430.04
-7.27%
$416.67 ~ $443.06
30d
$414.33
-10.66%
$400.03 ~ $427.82
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Turun
Consensus
83%
Score
-0.897
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260727_211131_zc
Direction
Turun
Confidence
89.6%

ZC swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZC

ZC
ZC
ZC
ZC
24%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Turun

Keyakinan

60%

Kesepakatan

100%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
0%
Netral
0%
Turun
100%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Low Fertilizer Input Costs From Cheap Natgas
  • 2Broad Commodity Momentum Suggests Usd Strength Driver
  • 3Elevated Geopolitical Crisis Risk Supports Dollar Haven Flows
  • 4Brazil safrinha corn export season is active, adding competing seaborne supply and pressuring US Gulf basis
  • 5No ZC-specific export sales or basis data was available to confirm any genuine tightness in US corn logistics

Risiko Utama

  • !Any Fed Dovish Pivot Or Dxy Reversal Could Quickly Flip Commodities Bid
  • !Weather Or South American Supply Shock Could Override Macro Bearish Case
  • !If Black Sea wheat export disruptions spill over into feed-grain substitution demand, corn could see a bullish demand pull that the crew data hints at but doesn't quantify
  • !Rule-based signal set is mostly off-ticker (wheat/sugar/rice headlines), so a real corn-specific logistics shock (barge, rail, or Gulf port congestion) could be missed entirely by this dataset

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Macrosonnet-4.6

Sustained natural gas weakness keeps fertilizer/input costs low for producers, which is a supply-side bearish factor for corn, while the quant model's steep -6.8%/-7.3%/-10.7% momentum across 7/14/30...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The logistics crew's bullish signals are low-quality proxies — most 'shipping_port' events reference wheat, sugar, and rice news rather than corn-specific port or vessel data, and the single Black...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

News sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish (1.0 weighted bearish vs 0.0 bullish) and corroborated across 6 languages, which is a rare high-confidence breadth signal for crowd sentiment rather than a...

Demandsonnet-4.6

The 30-day demand trend (-10.7%) is too persistent to be a single-day crude spike anomaly — it reflects sustained softening in export and feed demand that a one-day +3.8% crude/ethanol impulse...

Aturan vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$410.81$397.85$423.68
2026-08-02$410.12$397.40$423.48
2026-08-03$434.23$420.06$447.20
2026-08-04$433.52$420.19$446.71
2026-08-05$433.25$419.44$446.48
2026-08-06$432.50$419.48$444.77
2026-08-07$432.17$418.99$446.70
2026-08-08$406.73$393.27$420.12
2026-08-09$406.31$392.80$419.80
2026-08-10$430.72$416.81$443.24
2026-08-11$430.33$417.40$443.86
2026-08-12$430.40$416.92$442.87
2026-08-13$430.00$417.28$442.99
2026-08-14$430.04$416.67$443.06
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui:

CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI