Signal Detail

Кукуруза

AI-ответ

Кукуруза (ZC) 30-day outlook: Падение. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Excess moisture in us_corn_belt: precip 66mm vs ET0 29mm. Moi. Confidence 73%. (As of 2026-08-02)

ZC
ПадениеADJUST
Текущая цена
$463.75
+4.04%
Консенсус
83%
Уверенность
73%
Уверенность решения73%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02.08.2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -6.81%

Кукуруза сейчас выглядит скорее медвежьим.

Вместо погони за ценой лучше действовать защитно или дождаться лучшей точки.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

Кукуруза сейчас выглядит скорее медвежьим. Вместо погони за ценой лучше действовать защитно или дождаться лучшей точки.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02.08.2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -6.81%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / ZC] Excess moisture in us_corn_belt: precip 66mm vs ET0 29mm. Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm. Excess moisture in argentina_rosario: precip 34mm vs ET0 13mm. El Nino phase: favorable US growing conditions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-6.8%), supply pressure easing. 52w position 87%: high prices incentivizing production expansion
Спрос
[Demand Crew / ZC] Crude oil surged +3.8% today: ethanol demand impulse. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 87.4th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-6.8%), consistent with demand softness
Макро
[Macro Crew / ZC] Natural gas at 52w 5%: fertilizer costs low. Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bearish (-6.8%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Вместо погони за ценой лучше действовать защитно или дождаться лучшей точки.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

Кукуруза сейчас выглядит скорее медвежьим.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
ZC swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$432.17
-6.81%
$418.99 ~ $446.70
14d
$430.04
-7.27%
$416.67 ~ $443.06
30d
$414.33
-10.66%
$400.03 ~ $427.82
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Падение
Consensus
83%
Score
-0.897
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260727_211131_zc
Direction
Падение
Confidence
89.6%

ZC swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZC

ZC
ZC
ZC
ZC
24%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Медвежий

Уверен.

60%

Согласие

100%

Agents

6/12

Голосование

Бычий
0%
Нейтр.
0%
Медвежий
100%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Low Fertilizer Input Costs From Cheap Natgas
  • 2Broad Commodity Momentum Suggests Usd Strength Driver
  • 3Elevated Geopolitical Crisis Risk Supports Dollar Haven Flows
  • 4Brazil safrinha corn export season is active, adding competing seaborne supply and pressuring US Gulf basis
  • 5No ZC-specific export sales or basis data was available to confirm any genuine tightness in US corn logistics

Осн. риски

  • !Any Fed Dovish Pivot Or Dxy Reversal Could Quickly Flip Commodities Bid
  • !Weather Or South American Supply Shock Could Override Macro Bearish Case
  • !If Black Sea wheat export disruptions spill over into feed-grain substitution demand, corn could see a bullish demand pull that the crew data hints at but doesn't quantify
  • !Rule-based signal set is mostly off-ticker (wheat/sugar/rice headlines), so a real corn-specific logistics shock (barge, rail, or Gulf port congestion) could be missed entirely by this dataset

Анализ по группам

Макроsonnet-4.6

Sustained natural gas weakness keeps fertilizer/input costs low for producers, which is a supply-side bearish factor for corn, while the quant model's steep -6.8%/-7.3%/-10.7% momentum across 7/14/30...

Логист.sonnet-4.6

The logistics crew's bullish signals are low-quality proxies — most 'shipping_port' events reference wheat, sugar, and rice news rather than corn-specific port or vessel data, and the single Black...

Настр.sonnet-4.6

News sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish (1.0 weighted bearish vs 0.0 bullish) and corroborated across 6 languages, which is a rare high-confidence breadth signal for crowd sentiment rather than a...

Спросsonnet-4.6

The 30-day demand trend (-10.7%) is too persistent to be a single-day crude spike anomaly — it reflects sustained softening in export and feed demand that a one-day +3.8% crude/ethanol impulse...

Правила vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$410.81$397.85$423.68
2026-08-02$410.12$397.40$423.48
2026-08-03$434.23$420.06$447.20
2026-08-04$433.52$420.19$446.71
2026-08-05$433.25$419.44$446.48
2026-08-06$432.50$419.48$444.77
2026-08-07$432.17$418.99$446.70
2026-08-08$406.73$393.27$420.12
2026-08-09$406.31$392.80$419.80
2026-08-10$430.72$416.81$443.24
2026-08-11$430.33$417.40$443.86
2026-08-12$430.40$416.92$442.87
2026-08-13$430.00$417.28$442.99
2026-08-14$430.04$416.67$443.06
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё