Signal Detail

Babi

Jawaban Cepat AI

Babi (HE) 30-day outlook: Naik. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+9.9%), supply may be tightening.. Confidence 76%. (As of 2026-08-02)

HE
NaikCONFIRM
Harga Saat Ini
$84.70
-13.94%
Konsensus
56%
Kepercayaan
76%
Confidence keputusan76%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 03.05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 9.87%

Babi saat ini condong bullish.

Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Babi saat ini condong bullish. Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 03.05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 9.87%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / HE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+9.9%), supply may be tightening. High volatility (58%): potential supply-chain disruption
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / HE] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 21.6th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. High corn feed costs pressure hog producer margins. Quant 7d: bullish (+9.9%), consistent with demand strength
Makro
[Macro Crew / HE] EXTREME volatility regime (58%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bullish (+9.9%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Babi saat ini condong bullish.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
HE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$93.06
+9.87%
$89.29 ~ $96.63
14d
$86.36
+1.96%
$82.82 ~ $90.21
30d
$86.34
+1.93%
$82.55 ~ $90.36
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
CONFIRM
Direction
Naik
Consensus
56%
Score
+1.005
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260731_065603_he
Direction
Naik
Confidence
92%

HE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (1개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for HE

HE
HE
HE
HE
75%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Naik

Keyakinan

45%

Kesepakatan

60%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
60%
Netral
40%
Turun
0%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1센티먼트 시그널 완전 부재로 크라우드 포지셔닝 방향 판단 불가
  • 27일 +9.87% 급등 대비 14일/30일 변화율(각 2% 내외)의 괴리는 최근 며칠간의 스파이크성 움직임을 시사
  • 3돈육/생돈 선물 특성상 계절적 수급·질병 이슈(ASF 등) 뉴스가 자주 가격을 흔들지만 이번 데이터셋엔 반영 안 됨
  • 4Seasonal Summer Heat Stress On Adg
  • 57d Vs 30d Momentum Divergence

Risiko Utama

  • !실제 COT 리포트 미확인 상태이므로 상업적 헤저 vs 투기적 롱 포지션 쏠림을 놓칠 위험
  • !단기 급등 이후 되돌림(mean reversion) 가능성을 과소평가할 위험
  • !no WASDE/USDA Hogs-and-Pigs inventory data cited to confirm actual herd tightening
  • !58% volatility could reflect demand-side speculation or export headlines rather than supply-chain disruption, and could reverse sharply

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

센티먼트 크루 원자료는 뚜렷한 시그널 부재를 보고하고 있으며(신뢰도 35, 시그널 0개), CFTC COT나 옵션 스큐, 뉴스 정서 등 구체적 데이터가 제공되지 않은 상태에서 방향성을 단정할 근거가 부족하다.

Supplysonnet-4.6

Summer heat stress typically drags down average daily gains and slaughter weights into Q3, which can tighten near-term market-ready hog supply and is seasonally consistent with the quant's bullish 7d...

Macrosonnet-4.6

HE (lean hogs) sits at the intersection of feed-cost inflation (grain/diesel pass-through) and export demand to China/Japan, both of which are more USD- and tariff-sensitive than the broad commodity...

Demandsonnet-4.6

Genuine demand-side support exists: Korea is a top-5 US pork export destination and Chuseok (2026-09-25) import buying typically ramps 6-8 weeks ahead, which lines up with early August.

Aturan vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$107.59$103.82$111.26
2026-08-02$107.14$103.22$110.96
2026-08-03$96.07$92.35$99.46
2026-08-04$95.67$91.96$99.61
2026-08-05$94.88$91.40$98.54
2026-08-06$93.96$90.13$97.89
2026-08-07$93.06$89.29$96.63
2026-08-08$102.92$99.18$106.79
2026-08-09$102.01$98.14$105.87
2026-08-10$90.53$87.00$93.93
2026-08-11$89.77$86.03$93.40
2026-08-12$88.65$84.98$92.33
2026-08-13$87.46$83.82$91.43
2026-08-14$86.36$82.82$90.21
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui:

CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI