Signal Detail

Свинина

AI-ответ

Свинина (HE) 30-day outlook: Рост. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Seasonal: month 5 is typically a tight-supply period for HE. . Confidence 66%. (As of 2026-05-03)

HE
РостADJUST
Текущая цена
$101.28
+8.37%
Консенсус
81%
Уверенность
66%
Уверенность решения66%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04.05.2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · -0.18%

Свинина сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

Свинина сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим. Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04.05.2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · -0.18%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / HE] Seasonal: month 5 is typically a tight-supply period for HE. KG severe supply chains: 아프리카돼지열병(ASF) 발생
Спрос
[Demand Crew / HE] Expensive beef drives consumer substitution toward pork, bullish hog demand. High corn feed costs pressure hog producer margins
Макро
[Macro Crew / HE] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

Свинина сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
HE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$101.09
-0.18%
$97.31 ~ $104.43
14d
$104.30
+2.99%
$100.94 ~ $107.89
30d
$107.98
+6.62%
$104.53 ~ $111.46
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Рост
Consensus
81%
Score
+0.770
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260504_065301_he
Direction
Рост
Confidence
79.2%

HE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 9 active signals.

ZC 52주 극단ZS 52주 극단ZW 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for HE

HE
HE
HE
80%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Бычий

Уверен.

63%

Согласие

86%

Agents

6/12

Голосование

Бычий
86%
Нейтр.
0%
Медвежий
14%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Beef Substitution Spread Widening LE Premium
  • 2Seasonal Grilling Demand Inflection May June
  • 3ZC Feed Cost Supply Tightening Secondary Support
  • 4Seasonal Q2 Tighter Ready Hog Numbers
  • 5Asf Asia Export Demand Pull On Us Pork

Осн. риски

  • !Export Demand Softness China Pork Import Slowdown
  • !Consumer Discretionary Pullback If Macro Weakens
  • !asf_mislabeled_as_supply_shock — actual mechanism is demand-side; if asian demand disappoints, bullish thesis weakens
  • !7d Flat Quant Signal And Neutral Base Forecast Suggest Near Term Chop Risk Before Upside Materializes

Анализ по группам

Спросsonnet-4.6

The rule-based model correctly identifies the beef substitution tailwind but underweights it — when LE prices are elevated, the pork-to-beef price spread widens and retail consumer demand for pork...

Предлож.sonnet-4.6

May seasonality is a genuine supply-side tailwind for US lean hogs — breeding herd placements from late-2025 translate to modestly tighter ready-to-market supplies in Q2 2026, supporting cash and...

Логист.sonnet-4.6

The automated system returned zero signals due to data gaps, but absence of detected disruptions is not the same as a clean logistics picture.

Настр.sonnet-4.6

RSI at 78.0 in lean hogs signals speculative longs are likely stretched — CFTC COT positioning in livestock futures at these RSI extremes historically precedes mean-reversion corrections of 3-7%.

Правила vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Уберите shopping-логику и сфокусируйте страницу на доказательствах, scorecard и chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$98.31$94.82$101.92
2026-05-03$98.82$95.49$102.41
2026-05-04$98.99$95.85$102.67
2026-05-05$99.73$96.19$103.20
2026-05-06$100.24$96.77$103.46
2026-05-07$100.59$97.00$104.11
2026-05-08$101.09$97.31$104.43
2026-05-09$102.04$98.84$105.57
2026-05-10$102.55$99.08$105.89
2026-05-11$102.67$99.46$106.28
2026-05-12$103.34$99.85$106.79
2026-05-13$103.75$100.31$106.99
2026-05-14$103.96$100.58$107.36
2026-05-15$104.30$100.94$107.89
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё