Signal Detail

Cerdo

Respuesta Rapida IA

Cerdo (HE) 30-day outlook: Alcista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Seasonal: month 5 is typically a tight-supply period for HE. . Confidence 66%. (As of 2026-05-03)

HE
AlcistaADJUST
Precio Actual
$101.28
+8.37%
Consenso
81%
Confianza
66%
Confianza de la decisión66%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · -0.18%

Cerdo muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Cerdo muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora. Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · -0.18%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / HE] Seasonal: month 5 is typically a tight-supply period for HE. KG severe supply chains: 아프리카돼지열병(ASF) 발생
Demanda
[Demand Crew / HE] Expensive beef drives consumer substitution toward pork, bullish hog demand. High corn feed costs pressure hog producer margins
Macro
[Macro Crew / HE] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Cerdo muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
HE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$101.09
-0.18%
$97.31 ~ $104.43
14d
$104.30
+2.99%
$100.94 ~ $107.89
30d
$107.98
+6.62%
$104.53 ~ $111.46
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alcista
Consensus
81%
Score
+0.770
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260504_065301_he
Direction
Alcista
Confidence
79.2%

HE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 9 active signals.

ZC 52주 극단ZS 52주 극단ZW 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for HE

HE
HE
HE
80%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Alcista

Confianza

63%

Acuerdo

86%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista
86%
Neutral
0%
Bajista
14%

Factores clave

  • 1Beef Substitution Spread Widening LE Premium
  • 2Seasonal Grilling Demand Inflection May June
  • 3ZC Feed Cost Supply Tightening Secondary Support
  • 4Seasonal Q2 Tighter Ready Hog Numbers
  • 5Asf Asia Export Demand Pull On Us Pork

Riesgos clave

  • !Export Demand Softness China Pork Import Slowdown
  • !Consumer Discretionary Pullback If Macro Weakens
  • !asf_mislabeled_as_supply_shock — actual mechanism is demand-side; if asian demand disappoints, bullish thesis weakens
  • !7d Flat Quant Signal And Neutral Base Forecast Suggest Near Term Chop Risk Before Upside Materializes

Resumen por Equipo

Demandsonnet-4.6

The rule-based model correctly identifies the beef substitution tailwind but underweights it — when LE prices are elevated, the pork-to-beef price spread widens and retail consumer demand for pork...

Supplysonnet-4.6

May seasonality is a genuine supply-side tailwind for US lean hogs — breeding herd placements from late-2025 translate to modestly tighter ready-to-market supplies in Q2 2026, supporting cash and...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The automated system returned zero signals due to data gaps, but absence of detected disruptions is not the same as a clean logistics picture.

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

RSI at 78.0 in lean hogs signals speculative longs are likely stretched — CFTC COT positioning in livestock futures at these RSI extremes historically precedes mean-reversion corrections of 3-7%.

Reglas vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$98.31$94.82$101.92
2026-05-03$98.82$95.49$102.41
2026-05-04$98.99$95.85$102.67
2026-05-05$99.73$96.19$103.20
2026-05-06$100.24$96.77$103.46
2026-05-07$100.59$97.00$104.11
2026-05-08$101.09$97.31$104.43
2026-05-09$102.04$98.84$105.57
2026-05-10$102.55$99.08$105.89
2026-05-11$102.67$99.46$106.28
2026-05-12$103.34$99.85$106.79
2026-05-13$103.75$100.31$106.99
2026-05-14$103.96$100.58$107.36
2026-05-15$104.30$100.94$107.89
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA