Signal Detail

قطن

اجابة AI السريعة

قطن (CT) 30-day outlook: محايد. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 24mm.. Confidence 57%. (As of 2026-06-18)

CT
محايدADJUST
السعر الحالي
$79.73
+6.29%
مستوى الإجماع
87%
مستوى الثقة
57%
ثقة القرار57%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
١٨‏/٠٦‏/٢٠٢٦، ١٢:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -3.58%

قطن لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

Summary

قراءة مبسطة

اقرأ الاتجاه والدليل والمخاطر أولاً ثم قرر كيف تنفذ.

قراءة سريعة

قطن لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة. حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
١٨‏/٠٦‏/٢٠٢٦، ١٢:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -3.58%
Evidence basis
العرض
[Supply Crew / CT] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 24mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-1.0%), supply pressure easing
الطلب
[Demand Crew / CT] Back-to-school textile orders: cotton demand. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.0%), consistent with demand softness
الماكرو
[Macro Crew / CT] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 4 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). HIGH crisis level: elevated risk appetite for commodities. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.0%), macro alignment
لماذا هذا الحكم
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

لماذا قد يكون الانتظار أفضل
i

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

ما الذي نتابعه بعد ذلك
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
السيناريو الأساسي

قطن لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

مراقبة المخاطر
لا توجد حالياً خلافات كبيرة.
CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.
Chart

مخطط السوق

المخطط مرجع بصري فقط؛ أما القرار الحقيقي فيأتي من الأدلة و debate أدناه.

البيانات متأخرة. راجع الأدلة وبطاقة الأداء معاً قبل القرار.
Quant

Quant Forecast

قارن نطاقات 7D و14D و30D في البنية نفسها.

7d
$76.88
-3.58%
$75.10 ~ $78.82
14d
$77.16
-3.22%
$75.50 ~ $78.98
30d
$76.21
-4.41%
$74.26 ~ $78.22
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

هنا تؤكد المنظومة أو تعدل أو تعكس قاعدة quant الأساسية.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
محايد
Consensus
87%
Score
-0.347
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

في ظروف الأزمة تصبح المحاكاة طبقة قرار إضافية.

Run
swarm_20260605_065249_ct
Direction
صعود
Confidence
92%

CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.

폭염 경고KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (4개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CT

CT
CT
CT
4%
Hit rate
AI Debate

إجماع AI متعدد

تحليل متقاطع من وكلاء AI مستقلين

حكم AI

هبوطي

الثقة

56%

إجماع

100%

Agents

6/12

توزيع الأصوات

صعودي
0%
محايد
0%
هبوطي
100%

العوامل الرئيسية

  • 1Brazil Harvest Supply Flow June
  • 2Comfortable Global Stocks To Use
  • 3Quant Momentum Bearish Confirmation
  • 4Broad commodity complex weakness (7/8 falling) creates systemic macro drag on CT
  • 5Quant model consistently bearish across 7d/14d/30d — established downtrend with no reversal signal

المخاطر الرئيسية

  • !Us Texas Dryland Crop Stress Could Flip Sentiment Bullish
  • !India Monsoon Arrival Delay Tightening 2026 27 Supply Outlook
  • !COT data absent from preprocessed signals — if large specs are crowded net-short, short-squeeze risk is unquantified and could invalidate bearish thesis rapidly
  • !14d forecast less negative than 7d (-0.46 vs -1.01) could signal deceleration into a base, making aggressive short entry poor risk/reward at current levels

ملخص تحليل الطاقم

Supplysonnet-4.6

Brazil Mato Grosso moisture stress is real but overstated as a bearish driver — June is peak harvest window for Brazilian cotton, so crop yield damage is largely locked in and the precip/ET0 deficit...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Cotton at 77.76 faces a confluence of macro headwinds: broad commodity complex deterioration (7/8 falling) creates a risk-off drag that historically correlates with textile demand slowdowns.

Globalsonnet-4.6

The quant model's consistent bearish signal across all three timeframes (7d: -1.01%, 14d: -0.46%, 30d: -1.22%) with a high-accuracy MAPE of 1.6% carries significant weight.

Demandsonnet-4.6

Chinese mill demand—the single largest driver of global cotton consumption—remains structurally subdued amid overcapacity in the domestic textile sector and weak apparel export orders, which no...

القواعد مقابل AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

أزل سلوك التسوق وأبق الصفحة مركزة على الأدلة والتحقق والتنفيذ عبر الرسم البياني.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-18$76.20$74.46$78.03
2026-06-19$76.24$74.33$78.21
2026-06-20$79.27$77.39$81.15
2026-06-21$79.36$77.57$81.27
2026-06-22$76.68$74.79$78.42
2026-06-23$76.80$74.87$78.57
2026-06-24$76.88$75.10$78.82
2026-06-25$76.75$74.89$78.52
2026-06-26$76.75$74.85$78.44
2026-06-27$79.74$77.97$81.63
2026-06-28$79.78$77.94$81.47
2026-06-29$77.06$75.15$78.92
2026-06-30$77.13$75.40$78.96
2026-07-01$77.16$75.50$78.98
E-E-A-T

مصادر البيانات

المنهجية: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

اخر تحديث:

CropCast v2.0 — محرك تنبؤات أسعار السلع بالذكاء الاصطناعي