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Signal Detail

قطن

اجابة AI السريعة

قطن (CT) 30-day outlook: محايد. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm.. Confidence 52%. (As of 2026-08-02)

CT
—محايد⇄ADJUST
السعر الحالي
$81.20
+2.25%
مستوى الإجماع
65%
مستوى الثقة
52%
ثقة القرار52%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٢‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -5.31%

قطن لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

التقرير اليوميبطاقة الأداء
Summary

قراءة مبسطة

اقرأ الاتجاه والدليل والمخاطر أولاً ثم قرر كيف تنفذ.

قراءة سريعة

قطن لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة. حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٢‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -5.31%
Evidence basis
العرض
[Supply Crew / CT] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-5.3%), supply pressure easing
الطلب
[Demand Crew / CT] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Back-to-school textile orders: cotton demand. Price at 75.4th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-5.3%), consistent with demand softness
الماكرو
[Macro Crew / CT] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bearish (-5.3%), macro alignment
لماذا هذا الحكم
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

لماذا قد يكون الانتظار أفضل
i

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

ما الذي نتابعه بعد ذلك
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
السيناريو الأساسي

قطن لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

مراقبة المخاطر
لا توجد حالياً خلافات كبيرة.
CT swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

مخطط السوق

المخطط مرجع بصري فقط؛ أما القرار الحقيقي فيأتي من الأدلة و debate أدناه.

البيانات متأخرة. راجع الأدلة وبطاقة الأداء معاً قبل القرار.
Quant

Quant Forecast

قارن نطاقات 7D و14D و30D في البنية نفسها.

7d
$76.89
-5.31%
$75.05 ~ $78.70
14d
$76.77
-5.46%
$74.83 ~ $78.58
30d
$78.75
-3.02%
$76.88 ~ $80.76
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

هنا تؤكد المنظومة أو تعدل أو تعكس قاعدة quant الأساسية.

Decision
⇄ADJUST
Direction
—محايد
Consensus
65%
Score
-0.372
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

في ظروف الأزمة تصبح المحاكاة طبقة قرار إضافية.

Run
swarm_20260718_214101_ct
Direction
صعود
Confidence
89.8%

CT swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CT

CT
CT
CT
4%
Hit rate
AI Debate

إجماع AI متعدد

تحليل متقاطع من وكلاء AI مستقلين

▼

حكم AI

هبوطي

الثقة

44%

إجماع

63%

Agents

6/12

توزيع الأصوات

صعودي
0%
محايد
37%
هبوطي
63%

العوامل الرئيسية

  • 1Kr Seasonal Textile Demand Support
  • 2Elevated Price Margin Pressure
  • 3Quant Bearish But Supply Driven
  • 4Back To School Order Cycle
  • 5Dxy Strength Pressuring Usd Priced Softs

المخاطر الرئيسية

  • !가격 추가 상승 시 다운스트림 헤징 수요 급감 리스크
  • !글로벌 의류 소비 둔화(중국/미국 재고조정)로 실물 수요 하방 가속 가능성
  • !Sudden Fed Dovish Pivot Or Dxy Reversal Could Spark Short Covering Rally
  • !Weather Driven Supply Shock In Us Or India Could Overwhelm Demand Side Bearishness

ملخص تحليل الطاقم

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

면화(CT) 수요 측면은 국내 추석 준비 및 개학기 텍스타일 수요라는 계절적 지지 요인과, 가격이 52주 레인지 75.4퍼센타일 수준으로 다운스트림 마진을 압박하기 시작하는 역풍이 혼재되어 방향성이 뚜렷하지 않다.

◎Macrosonnet-4.6

Persistent USD firmness tied to the Fed holding rates higher-for-longer keeps dollar-denominated cotton expensive for offshore mills, and lingering US-China tariff friction continues to suppress...

◆Sentimentsonnet-4.6

No CFTC COT, options skew, or multilingual news flow data was actually populated for CT this cycle, so I can't confirm genuine crowd positioning extremes — the quant engine's -5.31%/-5.46% short-term...

◈Supplysonnet-4.6

Given the timing (early August), this moisture deficit in Mato Grosso falls within Brazil's cotton harvest window, so dry conditions likely aid harvest progress and fiber quality rather than threaten...

القواعد مقابل AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

أزل سلوك التسوق وأبق الصفحة مركزة على الأدلة والتحقق والتنفيذ عبر الرسم البياني.

Report
افتح تقرير الأدلة
Validation
راجع بطاقة الأداء والتداول التجريبي
Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$79.43$77.55$81.35
2026-08-02$79.32$77.65$81.21
2026-08-03$77.28$75.49$79.03
2026-08-04$77.26$75.37$79.19
2026-08-05$77.15$75.28$78.97
2026-08-06$76.86$75.06$78.66
2026-08-07$76.89$75.05$78.70
2026-08-08$78.83$77.10$80.56
2026-08-09$78.79$76.97$80.73
2026-08-10$76.84$74.92$78.80
2026-08-11$76.90$75.02$78.87
2026-08-12$76.87$75.09$78.65
2026-08-13$76.66$74.84$78.63
2026-08-14$76.77$74.83$78.58
E-E-A-T

مصادر البيانات

USDA WASDENOAA ENSO/CFSv2CFTC COTNASA NDVIKAMISCME GroupFAO

المنهجية: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

اخر تحديث:

CropCast v2.0 — محرك تنبؤات أسعار السلع بالذكاء الاصطناعي