Signal Detail

Algodón

Respuesta Rapida IA

Algodón (CT) 30-day outlook: Neutral. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 24mm.. Confidence 57%. (As of 2026-06-18)

CT
NeutralADJUST
Precio Actual
$79.73
+6.29%
Consenso
87%
Confianza
57%
Confianza de la decisión57%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -3.58%

Algodón todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Algodón todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara. Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -3.58%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / CT] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 24mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-1.0%), supply pressure easing
Demanda
[Demand Crew / CT] Back-to-school textile orders: cotton demand. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.0%), consistent with demand softness
Macro
[Macro Crew / CT] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 4 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). HIGH crisis level: elevated risk appetite for commodities. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.0%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Algodón todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$76.88
-3.58%
$75.10 ~ $78.82
14d
$77.16
-3.22%
$75.50 ~ $78.98
30d
$76.21
-4.41%
$74.26 ~ $78.22
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Neutral
Consensus
87%
Score
-0.347
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260605_065249_ct
Direction
Alcista
Confidence
92%

CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.

폭염 경고KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (4개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CT

CT
CT
CT
4%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Bajista

Confianza

56%

Acuerdo

100%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista
0%
Neutral
0%
Bajista
100%

Factores clave

  • 1Brazil Harvest Supply Flow June
  • 2Comfortable Global Stocks To Use
  • 3Quant Momentum Bearish Confirmation
  • 4Broad commodity complex weakness (7/8 falling) creates systemic macro drag on CT
  • 5Quant model consistently bearish across 7d/14d/30d — established downtrend with no reversal signal

Riesgos clave

  • !Us Texas Dryland Crop Stress Could Flip Sentiment Bullish
  • !India Monsoon Arrival Delay Tightening 2026 27 Supply Outlook
  • !COT data absent from preprocessed signals — if large specs are crowded net-short, short-squeeze risk is unquantified and could invalidate bearish thesis rapidly
  • !14d forecast less negative than 7d (-0.46 vs -1.01) could signal deceleration into a base, making aggressive short entry poor risk/reward at current levels

Resumen por Equipo

Supplysonnet-4.6

Brazil Mato Grosso moisture stress is real but overstated as a bearish driver — June is peak harvest window for Brazilian cotton, so crop yield damage is largely locked in and the precip/ET0 deficit...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Cotton at 77.76 faces a confluence of macro headwinds: broad commodity complex deterioration (7/8 falling) creates a risk-off drag that historically correlates with textile demand slowdowns.

Globalsonnet-4.6

The quant model's consistent bearish signal across all three timeframes (7d: -1.01%, 14d: -0.46%, 30d: -1.22%) with a high-accuracy MAPE of 1.6% carries significant weight.

Demandsonnet-4.6

Chinese mill demand—the single largest driver of global cotton consumption—remains structurally subdued amid overcapacity in the domestic textile sector and weak apparel export orders, which no...

Reglas vs IAdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-18$76.20$74.46$78.03
2026-06-19$76.24$74.33$78.21
2026-06-20$79.27$77.39$81.15
2026-06-21$79.36$77.57$81.27
2026-06-22$76.68$74.79$78.42
2026-06-23$76.80$74.87$78.57
2026-06-24$76.88$75.10$78.82
2026-06-25$76.75$74.89$78.52
2026-06-26$76.75$74.85$78.44
2026-06-27$79.74$77.97$81.63
2026-06-28$79.78$77.94$81.47
2026-06-29$77.06$75.15$78.92
2026-06-30$77.13$75.40$78.96
2026-07-01$77.16$75.50$78.98
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA