Signal Detail

Хлопок

AI-ответ

Хлопок (CT) 30-day outlook: Боковик. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm.. Confidence 52%. (As of 2026-08-02)

CT
БоковикADJUST
Текущая цена
$81.20
+2.25%
Консенсус
65%
Уверенность
52%
Уверенность решения52%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02.08.2026, 06:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -5.31%

Хлопок пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

Хлопок пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению. Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02.08.2026, 06:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -5.31%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / CT] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-5.3%), supply pressure easing
Спрос
[Demand Crew / CT] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Back-to-school textile orders: cotton demand. Price at 75.4th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-5.3%), consistent with demand softness
Макро
[Macro Crew / CT] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bearish (-5.3%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

Хлопок пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
CT swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 9 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$76.89
-5.31%
$75.05 ~ $78.70
14d
$76.77
-5.46%
$74.83 ~ $78.58
30d
$78.75
-3.02%
$76.88 ~ $80.76
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Боковик
Consensus
65%
Score
-0.372
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260718_214101_ct
Direction
Рост
Confidence
89.8%

CT swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CT

CT
CT
CT
4%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Медвежий

Уверен.

44%

Согласие

63%

Agents

6/12

Голосование

Бычий
0%
Нейтр.
37%
Медвежий
63%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Kr Seasonal Textile Demand Support
  • 2Elevated Price Margin Pressure
  • 3Quant Bearish But Supply Driven
  • 4Back To School Order Cycle
  • 5Dxy Strength Pressuring Usd Priced Softs

Осн. риски

  • !가격 추가 상승 시 다운스트림 헤징 수요 급감 리스크
  • !글로벌 의류 소비 둔화(중국/미국 재고조정)로 실물 수요 하방 가속 가능성
  • !Sudden Fed Dovish Pivot Or Dxy Reversal Could Spark Short Covering Rally
  • !Weather Driven Supply Shock In Us Or India Could Overwhelm Demand Side Bearishness

Анализ по группам

Спросsonnet-4.6

면화(CT) 수요 측면은 국내 추석 준비 및 개학기 텍스타일 수요라는 계절적 지지 요인과, 가격이 52주 레인지 75.4퍼센타일 수준으로 다운스트림 마진을 압박하기 시작하는 역풍이 혼재되어 방향성이 뚜렷하지 않다.

Макроsonnet-4.6

Persistent USD firmness tied to the Fed holding rates higher-for-longer keeps dollar-denominated cotton expensive for offshore mills, and lingering US-China tariff friction continues to suppress...

Настр.sonnet-4.6

No CFTC COT, options skew, or multilingual news flow data was actually populated for CT this cycle, so I can't confirm genuine crowd positioning extremes — the quant engine's -5.31%/-5.46% short-term...

Предлож.sonnet-4.6

Given the timing (early August), this moisture deficit in Mato Grosso falls within Brazil's cotton harvest window, so dry conditions likely aid harvest progress and fiber quality rather than threaten...

Правила vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Уберите shopping-логику и сфокусируйте страницу на доказательствах, scorecard и chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$79.43$77.55$81.35
2026-08-02$79.32$77.65$81.21
2026-08-03$77.28$75.49$79.03
2026-08-04$77.26$75.37$79.19
2026-08-05$77.15$75.28$78.97
2026-08-06$76.86$75.06$78.66
2026-08-07$76.89$75.05$78.70
2026-08-08$78.83$77.10$80.56
2026-08-09$78.79$76.97$80.73
2026-08-10$76.84$74.92$78.80
2026-08-11$76.90$75.02$78.87
2026-08-12$76.87$75.09$78.65
2026-08-13$76.66$74.84$78.63
2026-08-14$76.77$74.83$78.58
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё