What is the 30-day price forecast for Cotton?

30-day forecast: $78.75 (-3.02%), range: $76.88–$80.76.

How do I start trading Cotton futures?

Cotton (CT) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

What key factors affect Cotton prices?

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

How accurate is CropCast's Cotton forecast?

Hit rate: 4.4% (4/91). Wrong calls stay visible.

Cotton Price Forecast 2026 — AI Prediction

—Neutral⇄ADJUST

Current Price

$81.20

+2.25%

Consensus

65%

Confidence

52%

decision confidence52%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

08/02/2026, 06:06 AM (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -5.31%

Cotton is not showing a decisive directional edge yet.

A wait-and-observe posture is appropriate until conviction improves.

Daily report Scorecard

Summary

Plain-Language Call

Read direction, evidence, and risk before deciding how to execute.

Quick read

Cotton is not showing a decisive directional edge yet. A wait-and-observe posture is appropriate until conviction improves.

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

08/02/2026, 06:06 AM (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -5.31%

Evidence basis

Demand (sonnet-4.6)

면화(CT) 수요 측면은 국내 추석 준비 및 개학기 텍스타일 수요라는 계절적 지지 요인과, 가격이 52주 레인지 75.4퍼센타일 수준으로 다운스트림 마진을 압박하기 시작하는 역풍이 혼재되어 방향성이 뚜렷하지 않다. 퀀트 7일 -5.3%는 최근 가격 조정을 반영하지만 이는 공급/투기적 포지셔닝 영향일 가능성이 높고, 실물 수요(의류·텍스타일 오더북)는 아직 급격한 위축 신호를 보이지 않아 순수 수요 관점에서는 중립이 타당하다.

Macro (sonnet-4.6)

Persistent USD firmness tied to the Fed holding rates higher-for-longer keeps dollar-denominated cotton expensive for offshore mills, and lingering US-China tariff friction continues to suppress China's raw cotton import appetite, reinforcing the -5.3%/-5.5%/-3.0% negative momentum across the 7/14/30-day quant windows. Elevated crude/energy prices also favor polyester substitution over cotton in textile demand, adding a structural headwind beyond pure momentum.

Sentiment (sonnet-4.6)

No CFTC COT, options skew, or multilingual news flow data was actually populated for CT this cycle, so I can't confirm genuine crowd positioning extremes — the quant engine's -5.31%/-5.46% short-term drawdown is real price action, but without spec positioning data I can't tell if it's trend continuation or a stretched-short setup ripe for a squeeze. The gap between the sharper 7d/14d decline and the milder 30d figure hints at recent acceleration, which from a pure flow perspective is as consistent with capitulation-driven overshoot as with sustained bearish momentum.

Why this call

Kr Seasonal Textile Demand Support

Why waiting may be better

가격 추가 상승 시 다운스트림 헤징 수요 급감 리스크

What to watch next

글로벌 의류 소비 둔화(중국/미국 재고조정)로 실물 수요 하방 가속 가능성

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

demand

—Neutral

▸ details

macro

—Neutral

▸ details

sentiment

↓Bearish

▸ details

supply

↑Bullish

▸ details

Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context

Sudden Fed Dovish Pivot Or Dxy Reversal Could Spark Short Covering Rally

Weather Driven Supply Shock In Us Or India Could Overwhelm Demand Side Bearishness

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Base scenario

Cotton is not showing a decisive directional edge yet.

Risk watch

Sudden Fed Dovish Pivot Or Dxy Reversal Could Spark Short Covering Rally

Weather Driven Supply Shock In Us Or India Could Overwhelm Demand Side Bearishness

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

CT swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 9 active signals.

Chart

Market Chart

The chart is visual reference only; the actual call comes from the evidence and debate below.

Delayed data. Combine this chart with evidence and scorecard context.

Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D, and 30D ranges in the same structure.

$76.89

-5.31%

$75.05 ~ $78.70

14d

$76.77

-5.46%

$74.83 ~ $78.58

30d

$78.75

-3.02%

$76.88 ~ $80.76

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

This is where the system confirms, adjusts, or overrides the quant base case.

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

—Neutral

Consensus

65%

Score

-0.372

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

In crisis conditions, simulation becomes an extra decision layer.

Run

swarm_20260718_214101_ct

Direction

Bullish

Confidence

89.8%

CT swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CT

Hit rate

AI Debate

AI Multi-Model Consensus

Cross-validated analysis from independent AI agents

▼

AI Verdict

Bearish

Confidence

44%

Agreement

63%

Agents

6/12

Vote Breakdown

Bullish

Neutral

37%

Bearish

63%

Key Drivers

1Kr Seasonal Textile Demand Support
2Elevated Price Margin Pressure
3Quant Bearish But Supply Driven
4Back To School Order Cycle
5Dxy Strength Pressuring Usd Priced Softs

Key Risks

!가격 추가 상승 시 다운스트림 헤징 수요 급감 리스크
!글로벌 의류 소비 둔화(중국/미국 재고조정)로 실물 수요 하방 가속 가능성
!Sudden Fed Dovish Pivot Or Dxy Reversal Could Spark Short Covering Rally
!Weather Driven Supply Shock In Us Or India Could Overwhelm Demand Side Bearishness

Crew Analysis Summary

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

면화(CT) 수요 측면은 국내 추석 준비 및 개학기 텍스타일 수요라는 계절적 지지 요인과, 가격이 52주 레인지 75.4퍼센타일 수준으로 다운스트림 마진을 압박하기 시작하는 역풍이 혼재되어 방향성이 뚜렷하지 않다.

◎Macrosonnet-4.6

Persistent USD firmness tied to the Fed holding rates higher-for-longer keeps dollar-denominated cotton expensive for offshore mills, and lingering US-China tariff friction continues to suppress...

◆Sentimentsonnet-4.6

◈Supplysonnet-4.6

Given the timing (early August), this moisture deficit in Mato Grosso falls within Brazil's cotton harvest window, so dry conditions likely aid harvest progress and fiber quality rather than threaten...

Rule-based vs AI Verdictdisagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remove shopping behavior and keep the page focused on evidence, scorecard validation, and chart execution.

Report

Open evidence report

Validation

Review scorecard and paper trading

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-08-01	$79.43	$77.55	$81.35
2026-08-02	$79.32	$77.65	$81.21
2026-08-03	$77.28	$75.49	$79.03
2026-08-04	$77.26	$75.37	$79.19
2026-08-05	$77.15	$75.28	$78.97
2026-08-06	$76.86	$75.06	$78.66
2026-08-07	$76.89	$75.05	$78.70
2026-08-08	$78.83	$77.10	$80.56
2026-08-09	$78.79	$76.97	$80.73
2026-08-10	$76.84	$74.92	$78.80
2026-08-11	$76.90	$75.02	$78.87
2026-08-12	$76.87	$75.09	$78.65
2026-08-13	$76.66	$74.84	$78.63
2026-08-14	$76.77	$74.83	$78.58

E-E-A-T

Data Sources

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

Methodology: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Last updated: 08/02/2026, 06:06 AM (UTC)