棉花未来30天价格展望？

30-day forecast: $78.75 (-3.02%), range: $76.88–$80.76.

如何开始交易棉花期货？

棉花 (CT) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

影响棉花价格的主要因素？

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

CropCast的棉花预测准确率？

Hit rate: 4.4% (4/91). Wrong calls stay visible.

棉花价格预测 2026 — AI预测

—中性⇄ADJUST

当前价格

$81.20

+2.25%

共识度

65%

置信度

52%

判断确定性52%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

2026/08/02 03:05 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -5.31%

棉花目前还没有足够明确的方向优势。

在确定性提升前，更适合先观察。

每日报告成绩单

Summary

通俗判断

先读方向、证据和风险，再决定如何执行。

快速结论

棉花目前还没有足够明确的方向优势。在确定性提升前，更适合先观察。

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

2026/08/02 03:05 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -5.31%

Evidence basis

供应分析

[Supply Crew / CT] Moisture deficit in brazil_mt: precip 0mm vs ET0 demand 32mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-5.3%), supply pressure easing

需求分析

[Demand Crew / CT] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Back-to-school textile orders: cotton demand. Price at 75.4th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-5.3%), consistent with demand softness

宏观分析

[Macro Crew / CT] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bearish (-5.3%), macro alignment

为什么会这样判断

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

为什么等待可能更好

在确定性提升前，更适合先观察。

下一步看什么

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

基础情景

棉花目前还没有足够明确的方向优势。

风险提示

当前没有明显分歧。

CT swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 9 active signals.

Chart

市场图表

图表仅作视觉参考，真正的判断来自下方的证据和 debate。

这是延迟数据。判断前请同时查看证据与成绩单。

Quant

Quant Forecast

用同一结构比较 7D、14D 和 30D 区间。

$76.89

-5.31%

$75.05 ~ $78.70

14d

$76.77

-5.46%

$74.83 ~ $78.58

30d

$78.75

-3.02%

$76.88 ~ $80.76

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

系统会在这里确认、调整或推翻 quant 基线。

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

—中性

Consensus

65%

Score

-0.372

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

危机状态下，模拟会成为额外决策层。

Run

swarm_20260718_214101_ct

Direction

看涨

Confidence

89.8%

CT swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CT

Hit rate

AI Debate

AI多模型共识

独立AI代理交叉验证分析

▼

AI判定

看跌

确信度

44%

共识率

63%

Agents

6/12

投票分布

看涨

中性

37%

看跌

63%

关键因素

1Kr Seasonal Textile Demand Support
2Elevated Price Margin Pressure
3Quant Bearish But Supply Driven
4Back To School Order Cycle
5Dxy Strength Pressuring Usd Priced Softs

主要风险

!가격 추가 상승 시 다운스트림 헤징 수요 급감 리스크
!글로벌 의류 소비 둔화(중국/미국 재고조정)로 실물 수요 하방 가속 가능성
!Sudden Fed Dovish Pivot Or Dxy Reversal Could Spark Short Covering Rally
!Weather Driven Supply Shock In Us Or India Could Overwhelm Demand Side Bearishness

团队分析摘要

◉需求sonnet-4.6

면화(CT) 수요 측면은 국내 추석 준비 및 개학기 텍스타일 수요라는 계절적 지지 요인과, 가격이 52주 레인지 75.4퍼센타일 수준으로 다운스트림 마진을 압박하기 시작하는 역풍이 혼재되어 방향성이 뚜렷하지 않다.

◎宏观sonnet-4.6

Persistent USD firmness tied to the Fed holding rates higher-for-longer keeps dollar-denominated cotton expensive for offshore mills, and lingering US-China tariff friction continues to suppress...

◆情绪sonnet-4.6

No CFTC COT, options skew, or multilingual news flow data was actually populated for CT this cycle, so I can't confirm genuine crowd positioning extremes — the quant engine's -5.31%/-5.46% short-term...

◈供应sonnet-4.6

Given the timing (early August), this moisture deficit in Mato Grosso falls within Brazil's cotton harvest window, so dry conditions likely aid harvest progress and fiber quality rather than threaten...

规则 vs AIdisagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

移除购物行为，让页面聚焦于证据、成绩单验证和图表执行。

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-08-01	$79.43	$77.55	$81.35
2026-08-02	$79.32	$77.65	$81.21
2026-08-03	$77.28	$75.49	$79.03
2026-08-04	$77.26	$75.37	$79.19
2026-08-05	$77.15	$75.28	$78.97
2026-08-06	$76.86	$75.06	$78.66
2026-08-07	$76.89	$75.05	$78.70
2026-08-08	$78.83	$77.10	$80.56
2026-08-09	$78.79	$76.97	$80.73
2026-08-10	$76.84	$74.92	$78.80
2026-08-11	$76.90	$75.02	$78.87
2026-08-12	$76.87	$75.09	$78.65
2026-08-13	$76.66	$74.84	$78.63
2026-08-14	$76.77	$74.83	$78.58

E-E-A-T

数据来源

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

方法论: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

最后更新: 2026/08/02 03:05 (UTC)