Signal Detail

ماشية

اجابة AI السريعة

ماشية (LE) 30-day outlook: صعود. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+2.9%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 69%. (As of 2026-08-02)

LE
صعودADJUST
السعر الحالي
$227.00
-1.83%
مستوى الإجماع
83%
مستوى الثقة
69%
ثقة القرار69%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٢‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 2.90%

ماشية يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الصاعد.

راجع الأدلة أولاً ثم اتبع السيناريو الصاعد بشكل انتقائي.

Summary

قراءة مبسطة

اقرأ الاتجاه والدليل والمخاطر أولاً ثم قرر كيف تنفذ.

قراءة سريعة

ماشية يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الصاعد. راجع الأدلة أولاً ثم اتبع السيناريو الصاعد بشكل انتقائي.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٢‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 2.90%
Evidence basis
العرض
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+2.9%), supply may be tightening
الطلب
[Demand Crew / LE] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Cheap pork draws consumers away from beef, pressuring cattle demand. High corn feed costs squeeze cattle producer margins, eventually bearish supply response. Quant 7d: bullish (+2.9%), consistent with demand strength
الماكرو
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (15%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bullish (+2.9%), macro alignment
لماذا هذا الحكم
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

لماذا قد يكون الانتظار أفضل
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

ما الذي نتابعه بعد ذلك
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
السيناريو الأساسي

ماشية يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الصاعد.

مراقبة المخاطر
لا توجد حالياً خلافات كبيرة.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

مخطط السوق

المخطط مرجع بصري فقط؛ أما القرار الحقيقي فيأتي من الأدلة و debate أدناه.

البيانات متأخرة. راجع الأدلة وبطاقة الأداء معاً قبل القرار.
Quant

Quant Forecast

قارن نطاقات 7D و14D و30D في البنية نفسها.

7d
$233.58
+2.90%
$228.96 ~ $238.27
14d
$233.68
+2.94%
$229.09 ~ $238.23
30d
$232.11
+2.25%
$227.13 ~ $236.55
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

هنا تؤكد المنظومة أو تعدل أو تعكس قاعدة quant الأساسية.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
صعود
Consensus
83%
Score
+0.908
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

في ظروف الأزمة تصبح المحاكاة طبقة قرار إضافية.

Run
swarm_20260727_211131_le
Direction
صعود
Confidence
68.6%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
LE
53%
Hit rate
AI Debate

إجماع AI متعدد

تحليل متقاطع من وكلاء AI مستقلين

حكم AI

صعودي

الثقة

65%

إجماع

89%

Agents

6/12

توزيع الأصوات

صعودي
89%
محايد
12%
هبوطي
0%

العوامل الرئيسية

  • 1Weakening Dxy Supports Commodity Exports
  • 2Fed Rate Cut Expectations Risk On Tailwind
  • 3Tight Us Cattle Supply Fundamental Backdrop
  • 4Multi-Decade-Low Beef Cow Inventory
  • 5Constrained Feedlot Placements

المخاطر الرئيسية

  • !Tariff Retaliation Could Disrupt Beef Export Demand To Mexico China
  • !Dxy Reversal Or Fed Pause Would Remove The Macro Tailwind Quickly
  • !Improving Pasture Conditions In Key Plains States Could Accelerate Heifer Retention And Herd Rebuilding Sooner Than Expected
  • !Quant 7d/14d/30d Momentum Figures Are Not Independently Corroborated By Supply-Specific Data In This Briefing So Confidence Should Not Be As High As 86

ملخص تحليل الطاقم

Macrosonnet-4.6

A softening DXY trend and market pricing of further Fed rate cuts in H2 2026 support broad commodity reflation, and live cattle should benefit from that tailwind alongside genuinely tight US herd...

Supplysonnet-4.6

US cattle herd remains at historically tight levels following years of drought-driven cow-herd liquidation, and beef cow inventory has yet to show a clear rebuilding inflection, which keeps near-term...

Demandsonnet-4.6

The rule-based neutral call weights a corn feed-cost/margin variable that belongs to the supply side, not true demand, and treats Chuseok pork substitution as a given when premium beef gift-sets are...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The rule-based crew data is essentially empty (no shipping, export, basis, or port signals), so it understates a well-known structural logistics constraint: the US cattle herd is near multi-decade...

القواعد مقابل AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

أزل سلوك التسوق وأبق الصفحة مركزة على الأدلة والتحقق والتنفيذ عبر الرسم البياني.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$237.26$232.73$241.67
2026-08-02$237.50$232.97$242.08
2026-08-03$232.62$228.06$237.22
2026-08-04$232.97$228.50$237.36
2026-08-05$233.38$228.78$238.08
2026-08-06$233.38$228.78$237.99
2026-08-07$233.58$228.96$238.27
2026-08-08$238.60$233.81$243.17
2026-08-09$238.68$234.38$242.84
2026-08-10$233.62$229.09$238.20
2026-08-11$233.77$229.39$238.20
2026-08-12$233.96$229.37$238.48
2026-08-13$233.73$229.05$238.16
2026-08-14$233.68$229.09$238.23
E-E-A-T

مصادر البيانات

المنهجية: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

اخر تحديث:

CropCast v2.0 — محرك تنبؤات أسعار السلع بالذكاء الاصطناعي