Signal Detail

ماشية

اجابة AI السريعة

ماشية (LE) 30-day outlook: صعود. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: 52w position 89%: high prices incentivizing production expans. Confidence 70%. (As of 2026-05-03)

LE
صعودADJUST
السعر الحالي
$253.00
-2.12%
مستوى الإجماع
51%
مستوى الثقة
70%
ثقة القرار70%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٤‏/٠٥‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٥٧ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.46%

ماشية يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الصاعد.

راجع الأدلة أولاً ثم اتبع السيناريو الصاعد بشكل انتقائي.

Summary

قراءة مبسطة

اقرأ الاتجاه والدليل والمخاطر أولاً ثم قرر كيف تنفذ.

قراءة سريعة

ماشية يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الصاعد. راجع الأدلة أولاً ثم اتبع السيناريو الصاعد بشكل انتقائي.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
٠٤‏/٠٥‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٦:٥٧ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.46%
Evidence basis
العرض
[Supply Crew / LE] 52w position 89%: high prices incentivizing production expansion
الطلب
[Demand Crew / LE] Price at 89.4th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. High corn feed costs squeeze cattle producer margins, eventually bearish supply response
الماكرو
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (13%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely
لماذا هذا الحكم
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

لماذا قد يكون الانتظار أفضل
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

ما الذي نتابعه بعد ذلك
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
السيناريو الأساسي

ماشية يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الصاعد.

مراقبة المخاطر
لا توجد حالياً خلافات كبيرة.
Chart

مخطط السوق

المخطط مرجع بصري فقط؛ أما القرار الحقيقي فيأتي من الأدلة و debate أدناه.

البيانات متأخرة. راجع الأدلة وبطاقة الأداء معاً قبل القرار.
Quant

Quant Forecast

قارن نطاقات 7D و14D و30D في البنية نفسها.

7d
$254.18
+0.46%
$249.77 ~ $258.36
14d
$254.26
+0.50%
$249.88 ~ $258.59
30d
$257.05
+1.60%
$252.47 ~ $261.30
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

هنا تؤكد المنظومة أو تعدل أو تعكس قاعدة quant الأساسية.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
صعود
Consensus
51%
Score
+0.414
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
55%
Hit rate
AI Debate

إجماع AI متعدد

تحليل متقاطع من وكلاء AI مستقلين

حكم AI

صعودي

الثقة

43%

إجماع

63%

Agents

6/12

توزيع الأصوات

صعودي
63%
محايد
16%
هبوطي
21%

العوامل الرئيسية

  • 1Retail Beef Affordability Stress At 89th Pct Price
  • 2Food Service Margin Compression Reducing Beef Menu Presence
  • 3Consumer Protein Substitution Toward Pork Poultry
  • 4Feedlot Operator Margin Squeeze From Elevated ZC Costs
  • 5Grilling Season Demand Already Priced In

المخاطر الرئيسية

  • !Grilling Season May Sustain Demand Longer Than Expected
  • !Export Demand From Asia Could Offset Domestic Softness
  • !Cold-chain export disruption (Japan, South Korea, China beef corridors) — a logistics shock to boxed-beef exports could pressure cutout values and feed back into live cattle weakness
  • !Elevated current price ($253) leaves little margin for error; any demand softening or plant slowdown (labor, maintenance) could break the upward drift quickly

ملخص تحليل الطاقم

Demandsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at the 89th percentile of its 52-week range creates measurable demand destruction at the retail and food-service level — consumers are actively trading down to pork and poultry, and...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

Live Cattle logistics are overwhelmingly domestic — BDI and port congestion carry near-zero signal weight here, making the low relevance score (0.2) accurate rather than a data gap.

Macrosonnet-4.6

Live Cattle (LE) benefits from structurally tight US herd supply — the cattle-on-feed inventory remains near multi-decade lows, creating a fundamental floor that technical and crisis signals amplify.

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $253 sits on structurally tight supply fundamentals — the US breeding herd remains near multi-decade lows post-drought liquidation cycle, and herd rebuilding is a multi-year process...

القواعد مقابل AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

أزل سلوك التسوق وأبق الصفحة مركزة على الأدلة والتحقق والتنفيذ عبر الرسم البياني.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$251.77$247.30$255.83
2026-05-03$252.03$248.10$256.49
2026-05-04$253.16$248.90$257.49
2026-05-05$253.52$249.08$258.01
2026-05-06$253.96$249.61$258.31
2026-05-07$253.91$249.43$258.42
2026-05-08$254.18$249.77$258.36
2026-05-09$252.92$248.64$257.19
2026-05-10$252.96$248.78$257.24
2026-05-11$253.88$249.35$258.05
2026-05-12$254.05$249.99$258.44
2026-05-13$254.31$249.92$258.86
2026-05-14$254.11$249.86$258.42
2026-05-15$254.26$249.88$258.59
E-E-A-T

مصادر البيانات

المنهجية: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

اخر تحديث:

CropCast v2.0 — محرك تنبؤات أسعار السلع بالذكاء الاصطناعي