Signal Detail

Sapi

Jawaban Cepat AI

Sapi (LE) 30-day outlook: Naik. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: 52w position 89%: high prices incentivizing production expans. Confidence 70%. (As of 2026-05-03)

LE
NaikADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$253.00
-2.12%
Konsensus
51%
Kepercayaan
70%
Confidence keputusan70%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06.57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.46%

Sapi saat ini condong bullish.

Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Sapi saat ini condong bullish. Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06.57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.46%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / LE] 52w position 89%: high prices incentivizing production expansion
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / LE] Price at 89.4th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. High corn feed costs squeeze cattle producer margins, eventually bearish supply response
Makro
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (13%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Sapi saat ini condong bullish.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$254.18
+0.46%
$249.77 ~ $258.36
14d
$254.26
+0.50%
$249.88 ~ $258.59
30d
$257.05
+1.60%
$252.47 ~ $261.30
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Naik
Consensus
51%
Score
+0.414
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
55%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Naik

Keyakinan

43%

Kesepakatan

63%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
63%
Netral
16%
Turun
21%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Retail Beef Affordability Stress At 89th Pct Price
  • 2Food Service Margin Compression Reducing Beef Menu Presence
  • 3Consumer Protein Substitution Toward Pork Poultry
  • 4Feedlot Operator Margin Squeeze From Elevated ZC Costs
  • 5Grilling Season Demand Already Priced In

Risiko Utama

  • !Grilling Season May Sustain Demand Longer Than Expected
  • !Export Demand From Asia Could Offset Domestic Softness
  • !Cold-chain export disruption (Japan, South Korea, China beef corridors) — a logistics shock to boxed-beef exports could pressure cutout values and feed back into live cattle weakness
  • !Elevated current price ($253) leaves little margin for error; any demand softening or plant slowdown (labor, maintenance) could break the upward drift quickly

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Demandsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at the 89th percentile of its 52-week range creates measurable demand destruction at the retail and food-service level — consumers are actively trading down to pork and poultry, and...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

Live Cattle logistics are overwhelmingly domestic — BDI and port congestion carry near-zero signal weight here, making the low relevance score (0.2) accurate rather than a data gap.

Macrosonnet-4.6

Live Cattle (LE) benefits from structurally tight US herd supply — the cattle-on-feed inventory remains near multi-decade lows, creating a fundamental floor that technical and crisis signals amplify.

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $253 sits on structurally tight supply fundamentals — the US breeding herd remains near multi-decade lows post-drought liquidation cycle, and herd rebuilding is a multi-year process...

Aturan vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$251.77$247.30$255.83
2026-05-03$252.03$248.10$256.49
2026-05-04$253.16$248.90$257.49
2026-05-05$253.52$249.08$258.01
2026-05-06$253.96$249.61$258.31
2026-05-07$253.91$249.43$258.42
2026-05-08$254.18$249.77$258.36
2026-05-09$252.92$248.64$257.19
2026-05-10$252.96$248.78$257.24
2026-05-11$253.88$249.35$258.05
2026-05-12$254.05$249.99$258.44
2026-05-13$254.31$249.92$258.86
2026-05-14$254.11$249.86$258.42
2026-05-15$254.26$249.88$258.59
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui:

CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI