Signal Detail

Sapi

Jawaban Cepat AI

Sapi (LE) 30-day outlook: Naik. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+2.9%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 69%. (As of 2026-08-02)

LE
NaikADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$227.00
-1.83%
Konsensus
83%
Kepercayaan
69%
Confidence keputusan69%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 06.06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 2.90%

Sapi saat ini condong bullish.

Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Sapi saat ini condong bullish. Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 06.06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 2.90%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+2.9%), supply may be tightening
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / LE] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Cheap pork draws consumers away from beef, pressuring cattle demand. High corn feed costs squeeze cattle producer margins, eventually bearish supply response. Quant 7d: bullish (+2.9%), consistent with demand strength
Makro
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (15%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bullish (+2.9%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Sapi saat ini condong bullish.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$233.58
+2.90%
$228.96 ~ $238.27
14d
$233.68
+2.94%
$229.09 ~ $238.23
30d
$232.11
+2.25%
$227.13 ~ $236.55
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Naik
Consensus
83%
Score
+0.908
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260727_211131_le
Direction
Naik
Confidence
68.6%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
LE
53%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Naik

Keyakinan

65%

Kesepakatan

89%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
89%
Netral
12%
Turun
0%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Weakening Dxy Supports Commodity Exports
  • 2Fed Rate Cut Expectations Risk On Tailwind
  • 3Tight Us Cattle Supply Fundamental Backdrop
  • 4Multi-Decade-Low Beef Cow Inventory
  • 5Constrained Feedlot Placements

Risiko Utama

  • !Tariff Retaliation Could Disrupt Beef Export Demand To Mexico China
  • !Dxy Reversal Or Fed Pause Would Remove The Macro Tailwind Quickly
  • !Improving Pasture Conditions In Key Plains States Could Accelerate Heifer Retention And Herd Rebuilding Sooner Than Expected
  • !Quant 7d/14d/30d Momentum Figures Are Not Independently Corroborated By Supply-Specific Data In This Briefing So Confidence Should Not Be As High As 86

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Macrosonnet-4.6

A softening DXY trend and market pricing of further Fed rate cuts in H2 2026 support broad commodity reflation, and live cattle should benefit from that tailwind alongside genuinely tight US herd...

Supplysonnet-4.6

US cattle herd remains at historically tight levels following years of drought-driven cow-herd liquidation, and beef cow inventory has yet to show a clear rebuilding inflection, which keeps near-term...

Demandsonnet-4.6

The rule-based neutral call weights a corn feed-cost/margin variable that belongs to the supply side, not true demand, and treats Chuseok pork substitution as a given when premium beef gift-sets are...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The rule-based crew data is essentially empty (no shipping, export, basis, or port signals), so it understates a well-known structural logistics constraint: the US cattle herd is near multi-decade...

Aturan vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$237.26$232.73$241.67
2026-08-02$237.50$232.97$242.08
2026-08-03$232.62$228.06$237.22
2026-08-04$232.97$228.50$237.36
2026-08-05$233.38$228.78$238.08
2026-08-06$233.38$228.78$237.99
2026-08-07$233.58$228.96$238.27
2026-08-08$238.60$233.81$243.17
2026-08-09$238.68$234.38$242.84
2026-08-10$233.62$229.09$238.20
2026-08-11$233.77$229.39$238.20
2026-08-12$233.96$229.37$238.48
2026-08-13$233.73$229.05$238.16
2026-08-14$233.68$229.09$238.23
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

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