Signal Detail

Sapi

Jawaban Cepat AI

Sapi (LE) 30-day outlook: Netral. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: No clear supply signals; Price at 81.8th p. Confidence 58%. (As of 2026-06-18)

LE
NetralCONFIRM
Harga Saat Ini
$249.05
-2.45%
Konsensus
43%
Kepercayaan
58%
Confidence keputusan58%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 03.08 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.18%

Sapi belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Sapi belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas. Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18/06/2026, 03.08 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.18%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / LE] No clear supply signals
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / LE] Price at 81.8th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins
Makro
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (12%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 4 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). HIGH crisis level: elevated risk appetite for commodities
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Sapi belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$249.50
+0.18%
$244.95 ~ $253.56
14d
$245.97
-1.24%
$241.72 ~ $250.34
30d
$246.43
-1.05%
$242.13 ~ $250.93
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
CONFIRM
Direction
Netral
Consensus
43%
Score
+0.354
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260612_065312_le
Direction
Naik
Confidence
89.2%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.

KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (3개)다수 선물 RSI 극단 (3개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
55%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Naik

Keyakinan

33%

Kesepakatan

38%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
38%
Netral
29%
Turun
33%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Elevated Retail Beef Prices Driving Protein Substitution
  • 2Foodservice Margin Compression At 249 Levels
  • 3Seasonal Grilling Season Demand Peak July4 Approaching
  • 4Seasonal demand support: June grilling season typically underpins cash cattle prices and packer demand
  • 5Price stabilization signal: 7-day change near flat (+0.07%) after -1.4% 14/30-day decline suggests potential exhaustion of selling

Risiko Utama

  • !4th Of July Grilling Demand Spike Could Delay Bearish Price Action 2-3 Weeks
  • !Tight Cattle Supply Herd Rebuild Cycle Could Support Prices Despite Demand Softness
  • !Elevated price level ($249+) historically incentivizes increased placements and can pressure futures as supply builds; crowded speculative longs in COT would amplify any correction
  • !If broad commodity bearishness reflects macro demand destruction (recession signal), beef demand at retail could soften with a 6-8 week lag, creating deferred downside

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Demandsonnet-4.6

At $249.12 and the 81.8th percentile of its 52-week range, live cattle prices are generating measurable demand destruction at the retail and foodservice levels — restaurant operators are under...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.12 is historically elevated, and the 14-30 day convergence at -1.4% suggests mild but sustained selling pressure — not a sharp breakdown.

Logisticssonnet-4.6

At $249.12, Live Cattle is trading at historically elevated levels and the quant engine's -1.4% 30-day drift confirms fading momentum — the summer grilling season demand premium appears largely...

Supplysonnet-4.6

The US cattle herd remains near multi-decade lows following the 2021-2023 drought-driven liquidation cycle, and herd rebuilding is a slow 3-4 year process — structural front-end supply tightness...

Aturan vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-18$251.98$247.85$256.29
2026-06-19$251.80$247.47$256.14
2026-06-20$251.62$247.67$255.99
2026-06-21$251.17$246.90$255.49
2026-06-22$250.03$245.56$254.07
2026-06-23$249.67$245.29$253.90
2026-06-24$249.50$244.95$253.56
2026-06-25$248.72$244.23$252.91
2026-06-26$248.33$243.87$252.48
2026-06-27$248.01$244.04$252.43
2026-06-28$247.48$243.20$251.70
2026-06-29$246.33$242.20$250.81
2026-06-30$246.03$241.84$250.45
2026-07-01$245.97$241.72$250.34
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui:

CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI