Signal Detail

Ganado

Respuesta Rapida IA

Ganado (LE) 30-day outlook: Alcista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+2.9%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 69%. (As of 2026-08-02)

LE
AlcistaADJUST
Precio Actual
$227.00
-1.83%
Consenso
83%
Confianza
69%
Confianza de la decisión69%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 06:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 2.90%

Ganado muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Ganado muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora. Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02/08/2026, 06:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 2.90%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+2.9%), supply may be tightening
Demanda
[Demand Crew / LE] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Cheap pork draws consumers away from beef, pressuring cattle demand. High corn feed costs squeeze cattle producer margins, eventually bearish supply response. Quant 7d: bullish (+2.9%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (15%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bullish (+2.9%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Ganado muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$233.58
+2.90%
$228.96 ~ $238.27
14d
$233.68
+2.94%
$229.09 ~ $238.23
30d
$232.11
+2.25%
$227.13 ~ $236.55
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alcista
Consensus
83%
Score
+0.908
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260727_211131_le
Direction
Alcista
Confidence
68.6%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
LE
53%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Alcista

Confianza

65%

Acuerdo

89%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista
89%
Neutral
12%
Bajista
0%

Factores clave

  • 1Weakening Dxy Supports Commodity Exports
  • 2Fed Rate Cut Expectations Risk On Tailwind
  • 3Tight Us Cattle Supply Fundamental Backdrop
  • 4Multi-Decade-Low Beef Cow Inventory
  • 5Constrained Feedlot Placements

Riesgos clave

  • !Tariff Retaliation Could Disrupt Beef Export Demand To Mexico China
  • !Dxy Reversal Or Fed Pause Would Remove The Macro Tailwind Quickly
  • !Improving Pasture Conditions In Key Plains States Could Accelerate Heifer Retention And Herd Rebuilding Sooner Than Expected
  • !Quant 7d/14d/30d Momentum Figures Are Not Independently Corroborated By Supply-Specific Data In This Briefing So Confidence Should Not Be As High As 86

Resumen por Equipo

Macrosonnet-4.6

A softening DXY trend and market pricing of further Fed rate cuts in H2 2026 support broad commodity reflation, and live cattle should benefit from that tailwind alongside genuinely tight US herd...

Supplysonnet-4.6

US cattle herd remains at historically tight levels following years of drought-driven cow-herd liquidation, and beef cow inventory has yet to show a clear rebuilding inflection, which keeps near-term...

Demandsonnet-4.6

The rule-based neutral call weights a corn feed-cost/margin variable that belongs to the supply side, not true demand, and treats Chuseok pork substitution as a given when premium beef gift-sets are...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The rule-based crew data is essentially empty (no shipping, export, basis, or port signals), so it understates a well-known structural logistics constraint: the US cattle herd is near multi-decade...

Reglas vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$237.26$232.73$241.67
2026-08-02$237.50$232.97$242.08
2026-08-03$232.62$228.06$237.22
2026-08-04$232.97$228.50$237.36
2026-08-05$233.38$228.78$238.08
2026-08-06$233.38$228.78$237.99
2026-08-07$233.58$228.96$238.27
2026-08-08$238.60$233.81$243.17
2026-08-09$238.68$234.38$242.84
2026-08-10$233.62$229.09$238.20
2026-08-11$233.77$229.39$238.20
2026-08-12$233.96$229.37$238.48
2026-08-13$233.73$229.05$238.16
2026-08-14$233.68$229.09$238.23
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA