Signal Detail

КРС

AI-ответ

КРС (LE) 30-day outlook: Рост. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+2.9%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 69%. (As of 2026-08-02)

LE
РостADJUST
Текущая цена
$227.00
-1.83%
Консенсус
83%
Уверенность
69%
Уверенность решения69%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02.08.2026, 06:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 2.90%

КРС сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

КРС сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим. Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
02.08.2026, 06:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 2.90%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+2.9%), supply may be tightening
Спрос
[Demand Crew / LE] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Cheap pork draws consumers away from beef, pressuring cattle demand. High corn feed costs squeeze cattle producer margins, eventually bearish supply response. Quant 7d: bullish (+2.9%), consistent with demand strength
Макро
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (15%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Elevated crisis level: monitoring macro risks. Quant 7d: bullish (+2.9%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

КРС сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$233.58
+2.90%
$228.96 ~ $238.27
14d
$233.68
+2.94%
$229.09 ~ $238.23
30d
$232.11
+2.25%
$227.13 ~ $236.55
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Рост
Consensus
83%
Score
+0.908
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260727_211131_le
Direction
Рост
Confidence
68.6%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
LE
53%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Бычий

Уверен.

65%

Согласие

89%

Agents

6/12

Голосование

Бычий
89%
Нейтр.
12%
Медвежий
0%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Weakening Dxy Supports Commodity Exports
  • 2Fed Rate Cut Expectations Risk On Tailwind
  • 3Tight Us Cattle Supply Fundamental Backdrop
  • 4Multi-Decade-Low Beef Cow Inventory
  • 5Constrained Feedlot Placements

Осн. риски

  • !Tariff Retaliation Could Disrupt Beef Export Demand To Mexico China
  • !Dxy Reversal Or Fed Pause Would Remove The Macro Tailwind Quickly
  • !Improving Pasture Conditions In Key Plains States Could Accelerate Heifer Retention And Herd Rebuilding Sooner Than Expected
  • !Quant 7d/14d/30d Momentum Figures Are Not Independently Corroborated By Supply-Specific Data In This Briefing So Confidence Should Not Be As High As 86

Анализ по группам

Макроsonnet-4.6

A softening DXY trend and market pricing of further Fed rate cuts in H2 2026 support broad commodity reflation, and live cattle should benefit from that tailwind alongside genuinely tight US herd...

Предлож.sonnet-4.6

US cattle herd remains at historically tight levels following years of drought-driven cow-herd liquidation, and beef cow inventory has yet to show a clear rebuilding inflection, which keeps near-term...

Спросsonnet-4.6

The rule-based neutral call weights a corn feed-cost/margin variable that belongs to the supply side, not true demand, and treats Chuseok pork substitution as a given when premium beef gift-sets are...

Логист.sonnet-4.6

The rule-based crew data is essentially empty (no shipping, export, basis, or port signals), so it understates a well-known structural logistics constraint: the US cattle herd is near multi-decade...

Правила vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-01$237.26$232.73$241.67
2026-08-02$237.50$232.97$242.08
2026-08-03$232.62$228.06$237.22
2026-08-04$232.97$228.50$237.36
2026-08-05$233.38$228.78$238.08
2026-08-06$233.38$228.78$237.99
2026-08-07$233.58$228.96$238.27
2026-08-08$238.60$233.81$243.17
2026-08-09$238.68$234.38$242.84
2026-08-10$233.62$229.09$238.20
2026-08-11$233.77$229.39$238.20
2026-08-12$233.96$229.37$238.48
2026-08-13$233.73$229.05$238.16
2026-08-14$233.68$229.09$238.23
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё