Signal Detail

КРС

AI-ответ

КРС (LE) 30-day outlook: Боковик. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: No clear supply signals; Price at 81.8th p. Confidence 58%. (As of 2026-06-18)

LE
БоковикCONFIRM
Текущая цена
$249.05
-2.45%
Консенсус
43%
Уверенность
58%
Уверенность решения58%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18.06.2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.18%

КРС пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

КРС пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению. Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
18.06.2026, 00:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.18%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / LE] No clear supply signals
Спрос
[Demand Crew / LE] Price at 81.8th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins
Макро
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (12%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 4 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). HIGH crisis level: elevated risk appetite for commodities
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

КРС пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$249.50
+0.18%
$244.95 ~ $253.56
14d
$245.97
-1.24%
$241.72 ~ $250.34
30d
$246.43
-1.05%
$242.13 ~ $250.93
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
CONFIRM
Direction
Боковик
Consensus
43%
Score
+0.354
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260612_065312_le
Direction
Рост
Confidence
89.2%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.

KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (3개)다수 선물 RSI 극단 (3개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
55%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Бычий

Уверен.

33%

Согласие

38%

Agents

6/12

Голосование

Бычий
38%
Нейтр.
29%
Медвежий
33%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Elevated Retail Beef Prices Driving Protein Substitution
  • 2Foodservice Margin Compression At 249 Levels
  • 3Seasonal Grilling Season Demand Peak July4 Approaching
  • 4Seasonal demand support: June grilling season typically underpins cash cattle prices and packer demand
  • 5Price stabilization signal: 7-day change near flat (+0.07%) after -1.4% 14/30-day decline suggests potential exhaustion of selling

Осн. риски

  • !4th Of July Grilling Demand Spike Could Delay Bearish Price Action 2-3 Weeks
  • !Tight Cattle Supply Herd Rebuild Cycle Could Support Prices Despite Demand Softness
  • !Elevated price level ($249+) historically incentivizes increased placements and can pressure futures as supply builds; crowded speculative longs in COT would amplify any correction
  • !If broad commodity bearishness reflects macro demand destruction (recession signal), beef demand at retail could soften with a 6-8 week lag, creating deferred downside

Анализ по группам

Спросsonnet-4.6

At $249.12 and the 81.8th percentile of its 52-week range, live cattle prices are generating measurable demand destruction at the retail and foodservice levels — restaurant operators are under...

Настр.sonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.12 is historically elevated, and the 14-30 day convergence at -1.4% suggests mild but sustained selling pressure — not a sharp breakdown.

Логист.sonnet-4.6

At $249.12, Live Cattle is trading at historically elevated levels and the quant engine's -1.4% 30-day drift confirms fading momentum — the summer grilling season demand premium appears largely...

Предлож.sonnet-4.6

The US cattle herd remains near multi-decade lows following the 2021-2023 drought-driven liquidation cycle, and herd rebuilding is a slow 3-4 year process — structural front-end supply tightness...

Правила vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Уберите shopping-логику и сфокусируйте страницу на доказательствах, scorecard и chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-18$251.98$247.85$256.29
2026-06-19$251.80$247.47$256.14
2026-06-20$251.62$247.67$255.99
2026-06-21$251.17$246.90$255.49
2026-06-22$250.03$245.56$254.07
2026-06-23$249.67$245.29$253.90
2026-06-24$249.50$244.95$253.56
2026-06-25$248.72$244.23$252.91
2026-06-26$248.33$243.87$252.48
2026-06-27$248.01$244.04$252.43
2026-06-28$247.48$243.20$251.70
2026-06-29$246.33$242.20$250.81
2026-06-30$246.03$241.84$250.45
2026-07-01$245.97$241.72$250.34
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё