Signal Detail

Gado-Vivo

Resposta Rapida IA

Gado-Vivo (LE) 30-day outlook: Alta. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: 52w position 89%: high prices incentivizing production expans. Confidence 70%. (As of 2026-05-03)

LE
AltaADJUST
Preço Atual
$253.00
-2.12%
Consenso
51%
Confiança
70%
Confiança da decisão70%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.46%

Gado-Vivo está com viés altista no momento.

Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Gado-Vivo está com viés altista no momento. Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
04/05/2026, 06:57 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.46%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / LE] 52w position 89%: high prices incentivizing production expansion
Demanda
[Demand Crew / LE] Price at 89.4th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. High corn feed costs squeeze cattle producer margins, eventually bearish supply response
Macro
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (13%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely
Por que essa leitura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

O que observar a seguir
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Cenário base

Gado-Vivo está com viés altista no momento.

Risco
Não há grande divergência no momento.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

7d
$254.18
+0.46%
$249.77 ~ $258.36
14d
$254.26
+0.50%
$249.88 ~ $258.59
30d
$257.05
+1.60%
$252.47 ~ $261.30
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alta
Consensus
51%
Score
+0.414
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
55%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

Veredicto IA

Alta

Confiança

43%

Acordo

63%

Agents

6/12

Votação

Alta
63%
Neutro
16%
Baixa
21%

Fatores-chave

  • 1Retail Beef Affordability Stress At 89th Pct Price
  • 2Food Service Margin Compression Reducing Beef Menu Presence
  • 3Consumer Protein Substitution Toward Pork Poultry
  • 4Feedlot Operator Margin Squeeze From Elevated ZC Costs
  • 5Grilling Season Demand Already Priced In

Riscos-chave

  • !Grilling Season May Sustain Demand Longer Than Expected
  • !Export Demand From Asia Could Offset Domestic Softness
  • !Cold-chain export disruption (Japan, South Korea, China beef corridors) — a logistics shock to boxed-beef exports could pressure cutout values and feed back into live cattle weakness
  • !Elevated current price ($253) leaves little margin for error; any demand softening or plant slowdown (labor, maintenance) could break the upward drift quickly

Resumo por Equipe

Demandsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at the 89th percentile of its 52-week range creates measurable demand destruction at the retail and food-service level — consumers are actively trading down to pork and poultry, and...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

Live Cattle logistics are overwhelmingly domestic — BDI and port congestion carry near-zero signal weight here, making the low relevance score (0.2) accurate rather than a data gap.

Macrosonnet-4.6

Live Cattle (LE) benefits from structurally tight US herd supply — the cattle-on-feed inventory remains near multi-decade lows, creating a fundamental floor that technical and crisis signals amplify.

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $253 sits on structurally tight supply fundamentals — the US breeding herd remains near multi-decade lows post-drought liquidation cycle, and herd rebuilding is a multi-year process...

Regras vs IAdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remova o comportamento de compra e mantenha a página focada em evidência, scorecard e execução no gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-05-02$251.77$247.30$255.83
2026-05-03$252.03$248.10$256.49
2026-05-04$253.16$248.90$257.49
2026-05-05$253.52$249.08$258.01
2026-05-06$253.96$249.61$258.31
2026-05-07$253.91$249.43$258.42
2026-05-08$254.18$249.77$258.36
2026-05-09$252.92$248.64$257.19
2026-05-10$252.96$248.78$257.24
2026-05-11$253.88$249.35$258.05
2026-05-12$254.05$249.99$258.44
2026-05-13$254.31$249.92$258.86
2026-05-14$254.11$249.86$258.42
2026-05-15$254.26$249.88$258.59
E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Previsão de Preços de Commodities com IA